Ru "PEE"

The RU-"PEE" hit a Record Low of 55 Vs Dollar. But Still No Action from the Govt. Raising US Bond Yield,Falling Euro, Adverse Demand from Corporates and Oil Marketing companies also a Reason for the Sharp Fall in the So Called Rupee. So what the UPA Govt doing ??? What the Finance Minister & "Presidential Candidate" Mr. Pranab doing???

As the UPA has completed 3 Years in Power what they have did So Far????

What the People got from the UPA govt so far???

Telecom Scam / Common Wealth Scam / Adarsh Scam / Military Scam ..

So whats the Result:-

1)Standard & Poor's cut India's credit rating outlook to negative from stable reflecting the toll that hefty fiscal and current account deficits and political paralysis

2)Data released by the Central Statistics Office showed annual inflation rate based on all India general CPI (combined) for April on point-to-point basis (April 2012 over April 2011) at 10.36% as compared to 9.38% for March.

3)The index of industrial production or IIP fell 3.5 per cent against a forecast of 1.5 per cent growth. So whats does it Means ? Is this Just a Number or more than that ? - Slow Growth / Weak Manufacturing & Job Growth / RBI will not Cut Rates Rapidly / Poor or Bearish Stock Market

4)Several recent policy decisions by India have caused "significant concern" and "dampened sentiment" about its investment climate, US Ambassador to India, Nancy J Powell said

5)Morgan Stanley cuts India's 2012 economic growth forecast to 6.3% from prior 6.9%; 2013 forecast to 6.8% from 7.5%.

6)India's economic growth has slumped to a near three-year low and its current account deficit is the highest since 1980, a gap that is difficult to control when the rupee is at a record low.

7) Poor FDI and FII inflow

But what is the Answer for all these form our Prime Minister - See Below :-

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Congress Party blames unreliable allies in his coalition government for blocking major reforms aimed at opening up the economy to much-needed foreign investment and tackling obstacles in the way of growth, from creaking infrastructure to endemic corruption.

Hence forth whats Going to Happen to Our Equity Market - "Sell - Sell - Sell" Only

Weekly Nifty Trading Below 200 dma, Clear Sell Signal on Weekly MACD - Shows that Nifty in the Grip of Bear. Last Friday Nifty took Support at 4788 show that some Reversal may happen due to Over sold region, a Relief rally may be temporary in Nature - Fall may resume at any time. If the Top line of the Channels gets Broken - then Once agian the fall may start any time Badly.

On Hourly Chart - Nifty has Broken out of the Falling Wedge - Possibility of Nifty may touch 4950 - 5000 and 5130 as I wrote on Friday. Any Upmove from here Must be Corrective in Nature Only.

Lets have a Closed Look at Nifty 5 Mins - Seems like sw (1) completed and (2) in action. May touch the Yellow channel Line before Bouncing back tomorrow. 4860 acts as a good support.

Lets see. Cheers!!!

At last Nifty came out of the Channel - Seems to have completed sw(3) - which is almost 261.8% or sw(1) - exactly at 4790. Thanks to SBI results which is more than expected - Hope Bank Nifty may help Nifty to rally Next week.

Important Levels for Next Week:- Resistance :- 4920 - 5000 - 5065 - 5130.

Above 4920 Shall be treated as a break Out and the Rest of the Levels are Targets - Next Week.

Lets See!!!

Its Friday!!! - Here we Go Again ? Up or Down !!!

Its again Friday tomorrow - Here we get ready to Go Again - Up or Down ??? Why tomorrow is Important to that much Extened ??? Because of SBI & Tata Steel Results to be announced. Also if Weekly close was below 4950 which is an Important Golden Ratio of 61.8% means the entire Scenario may turn Bearish. Political Chaos in Greece followed by Banking Panic, Raising Bond Value in Spain & Italy also increasing the Nervous of the Investors world wide. All these are Heavily Impacting on Asian Currencies - Particularly INR, Pushing our Equity Market under Heavy Pressure. Widening Physical Deficit, Raising Crude Prices followed by Uncontrolled Inflation - Poorer than Expected Domestic Corporate Results - Negative GDP Ratio - all are raising questions about the Stability in Our Indian Economy. Where is our Indian Economy - Are We still in Slow Down or Below than that Like Recession ???? Policy Makers says that the Problems Persist world wide ???? Is it True ???

So In a Situation Like this how to asses a Chart Technically - Should agree that its really tuff when Charts are correcting in a Double zig zage with most complex corrections with many Extension waves. I must worry for hitting SL for the Second Day also in Nifty. Yesterday Nifty hit SL in Just 5 Pts and Went Up today morning in the Opening Trade itself to hit near to the Target 4922.

Now as I have marked - If i am not wrong on my count - Nifty has started its Upward Journey and have completed (i) and (ii) as market on chart - seems like it should break above the (green and White Lines )channel for a good Upmove tomorrow. A weekly close above 4950 or 5000 should be seen as a Bull move and Nifty should see a good short covering Next week.

On the Contrary if Nifty unable to sustain above 4837 (yesterday's Low ) or 4800 then Entire count should be Invalid and Nifty may start dripping down more deeply.

Bulls or Bear Lets see!!!

Get Ready for Bottom Fishing

Yesterdays Falling Wedge break out did not give returns today - as we saw as gap down today also. It seems like the Diagonal fall as last leg - shows still we need Patience. Nothing more to say!!!

>>>ANDHRA BANK <<<

Andhra Bank - Looks very Safe Buy now. As Per chart a Safe Traders can Buy above 107.70 for a Good Profit from Current Level. Good Volume at Lower Level shows accumulation Started. Lets See!!!

Be Patient for a Relief Rally

As I wrote Yesterday Nifty today touched the Key Resistance 4950-55 and closed at 4939. Nifty able to come out of the falling wedge - seems like a Break out for an Relief Rally - which should be sw(4). Between the Resistance should be 4970 / 5030 and 5075 should be watched.

Today Performance :-

>>>NIFTY<<<

5/15/2012 9:41:17 AM): *****NIFTY-ALERT***** Buy NIFTY Spot if breaks above 4915 for a Target of 4950 / 4990 with a SL of 4890.

15-05-12, 01-36-28 pm ****NIFTY-Update***** Nifty made a High of 4952. Buy given at 4915. First Target Achieved. Book Partial Profit.

>>>SBIN<<<

5/15/2012 10:46:54 AM): *****STOCK-ALERT***** Buy SBIN if trades above 1862 with a SL of 1835 for a Target of 1890 & 1950

Made a High of 1871 - Holding

>>>IDBI<<<

(5/15/2012 11:55:32 AM): ****STOCK-ALERT***** Buy IDBI above 91.60 for a Target of 93.40 / 94.80 and 96.60 with SL of 90.10

Holding -


>>>ANDHRA BANK<<<

(5/15/2012 12:35:18 PM): ****STOCK-ALERT***** Buy ANDHRA BANK above 105 for a Target of 108 / 110 / 112 & 115.50 with a SL of 102.

Made a High of 107 Near to First Target. Holding

Wait for Relief Rally !!!

Nifty making a more choppy waves inside a contracting channel with +ve Divergence shows a Bounce back any time. Also an Important Gap left as on 17th Jan, 2012 at 4880 has been filled today seems to be increasing the hope for a Bounce very soon. Important Resistance at 4923 and 4950-55 should be crossed tomorrow for any further up move. Let see!!!

>>>NIFTY<<<

(5/11/2012 3:04:52 PM):*****NIFTY - ALERT***** BUY AGAIN NIFTY NEAR 4930 WITH A SL OF 4920. TARGET 4960 & 4990. CMP: 4932
Made a High of 4956 - Near First Target - Partial Profit Booked.

(5/14/2012 12:06:35 PM): Update:- Can Bank did not trigger Our Buy Price.
Axis Bank Hit SL at 1000. Exit.
Nifty Hit first Target & Hit SL. Exit
IVRCL SL Hit Exit.
BHEL Exit.
Bank Nifty Exit.

How Low can You Go - Nifty ???

No one would like to see a Market like this unless You are a Short Trader.
Nifty has really gone Mad, broken the Key Level 5000 and closed near to 4900.
So the Important Question is How Low can Nifty Go from here.
Lets See.

As per Eod - the Picture does not Look good.
1). Nifty Closed below 200 dma.
2) Nifty Closed below 61.8 Retrace which may go down to Next 78.6% which is 4766.
3) Nifty broken the Trend Line at 5070.

Attached Hourly Chart says there is a Probability for an Interim Bounce from current level before Next Fall.
It seems Ongoing sw(3)(5)(1) might have completed - and may Bounce for sw(2) as shown on Chart with arrow mark.
Also the fall looks like a Falling wedge - break above the channel may give some Relief Rally for Bulls next week.
The Bounce could be upto 5040 and 5090 or even above that...

Attached is an Alternative Scenario on Nifty Chart - as we might have completed sw(3) and looking for a bounce.
Breaking the Falling wedge bounce should be sw(4) which may target for 5124.

Friday's Performance :-

>>> IVRCL INFRA <<<
(5/11/2012 11:44:08 AM):*****STOCK-ALERT***** BUY IVRCL-INFRA BETWEEN 49.50 - 50 WITH A SL OF 48. TARGET 54 & 56
High Made 51.90 - Holding

>>>IDFC<<<
(5/11/2012 1:03:51 PM): *****STOCK-ALERT***** Buy IDFC if trades above 118.5 with SL of 117.4 for a Target of 122 & 127
(5/11/2012 2:18:19 PM): *****STOCK - UPDATE***** IDFC Buy given at 118.5 - First Target 122 Achieved, Book Partial Profit
Holding Rest for 2nd Target

>>>NIFTY<<<
(5/11/2012 1:23:57 PM): *****NIFTY-ALERT***** Nifty Spot if trades above 4930 can move upto 4960 & 4980. Support @ 4905.
(5/11/2012 2:12:24 PM): *****NIFTY-UPDATE***** Nifty Near 2nd Target also at 4980. Buy given at 4930. Book Solid 50 pts.
(5/11/2012 3:04:52 PM): *****NIFTY - ALERT***** BUY AGAIN NIFTY NEAR 4930 WITH A SL OF 4920. TARGET 4960 & 4990. CMP: 4932
Holding Long - Low made after the Calls @ 4922.95


>>>BANK NIFTY <<<
(5/11/2012 2:05:53 PM): *****BANKD NIFTY-ALERT***** Buy Bank Nifty Spot above 9460 for a Target of 9600 & 9960. SL below 9380
Holding Long - Low Made after this Buy Calls @ 9381.65


>>>BHEL<<<
(5/11/2012 3:23:36 PM): *****STOCK - ALERT***** Buy BHEL NEAR 220 WITH A SL OF 216 FOR A TARGET OF 230 & 236
Holding for the Target

Roller Coaster Ride with Bear

Yes its really a Roller Coaster Ride in Stock market - as this week market Swing here and there - its a Night mare for Traders as well as Investors -

Nifty on sub wave 3 and tomorrow is Friday = Bear Domination ????

Yes may be this picture comes reality tomorrow, if today low 4950 breaks which is an Important support to be watched tomorrow. If the Support Holds then Possibility of Upmove upto 5040 & 5080 not ruled out. Lets See..

Performance on Nifty Today:-

(5/10/2012 9:18:53 AM): *****NIFTY-ALERT**** If Nifty able to trade above 5013 then look for 5060 with a SL of 4984

(5/10/2012 12:36:15 PM): *****NIFTY-Update**** Book Profit in Nifty 5038 - Buy given at 5013

(5/10/2012 1:00:16 PM): *****ALERT**** EXIT ALL LONGS - TATA STEEL / BGR ENERGY / ICICI BANK &. SBIN.

(5/10/2012 1:03:44 PM): *****NIFTY -ALERT**** Nifty if breaks below 5013 then fall upto 4974 can't be ruled out. Resistance @ 5031.

(5/10/2012 1:57:52 PM): Nifty Low Made 4960. Sell given at 5013. Book Profit.

(5/10/2012 2:05:10 PM): *****NIFTY-ALERT*****BUY NIFTY ABOVE 4974. SL 4950-4956. TARGET 5010 & 5050.
Low made 4950.95 (still on Hold)

Fear to the Bear

>>>NIFTY<<<

Have a done a change on my Count. As said earlier the as last c(5) - Have changed now to c(3) - Prior counts also changes as per. Refer the Chart for the Changes Counts. Support for Tomorrow at 4946, 4900 and 4836.

>>>IDBI<<<

(5/9/2012 2:09:59 PM): *****STOCK-ALERT***** Sell if IDBI breaks below 93.5 with a SL of 94.80 for a Target of 91 and 89
(5/9/2012 2:51:10 PM): *****STOCK-Update*****IDBI made a Low of 91.6 Near first Target near First Target, Sell given at 93.5.

>>>TATA STEEL<<<

(5/9/2012 9:26:59 AM): *****Stock-Alert*****:- TATA STEEL:- Buy if trades above 426 with a SL of 420. Target 435 and 445.

Tata STeel made a High of 444.5, Near to the 2nd Target.

>>>ANDHRA BANK<<<

Tomorrow if Andhra Bank Sustains below 108 then a Fall Upto 103 not ruled out.

Bears are Back !!!

>>>>> NIFTY <<<<<

As told Yesterday

Happened Today.

Now for Tomorrow Nifty had good Support @ 4950. Resistance @ 5016 & 5038.
Ultimately Nifty should test the levels of 4880 & 4844 very soon.

Today's Performance :-

>>>IDFC<<<

(5/7/2012 2:19:39 PM): *****STOCK-ALERT*****:- Buy IDFC if trades above 114 for a Target of 120 and 127 with a SL of 110.

(5/8/2012 9:16:22 AM): Stock Update:- Book Proift in IDFC call given Yesterday at 114. Cmp:119

>>>>TATA STEEL<<<<

(5/8/2012 9:21:35 AM): ****STOCK-ALERT***** TATA STEEL if breaks below 439 then a fall upto 432 and 420. Resistance at 445.

(5/8/2012 9:55:02 AM): Tata Steel 436. Intraday Traders Can Book profit here
(5/8/2012 2:56:56 PM): Cmp:428 - Book More Profit

>>>>ANDHRA BANK <<<<
(5/8/2012 1:01:18 PM): ****STOCK-ALERT**** ANDHRA BANK:-if breaks below 118 may slide upto 116.3 / 114.4/112.8. Resistance @ 119.30

(5/8/2012 2:54:18 PM): Near First Target - Intraday Players Book Profit

Do You Trust this Upmove???

>>>>NIFTY<<<<

Chart given on Friday -

Happened today as above. Now sw(4) is completed - Resistance for tomorrow at 5134 & 5168 - Nifty may reverse to a fall if these levels are not crossed. In such a Case we may see a break below today low for a Target of 4950 or near to that.

>>>>>HDFC BANK<<<<<

Chart given on Friday.

Call was send to Clients as below:-

(5/4/2012 2:50:57 PM): *****STOCK-ALERT***** HDFC BANK:- If Trades below 538-536 level then Fall upto 530 / 525 & 518. Resistance @ 549

Actually Happened - Low made 516.45

Have send Calls like Andhra Bank / IDFC / BGR Energy also :-

>>>IDFC<<<

(5/4/2012 12:16:38 PM): *****STOCK-ALERT***** IDFC:- If breaks below 115.50, then may Fall upto 113.70 / 110.80 / 108 & 104 Levels. Resistance @ 116.50

(5/7/2012 9:26:35 AM): Stock-Update:-IDFC Sell given at 115.5. cmp: 111.5. Near 2nd Target. Book further Profit.

>>>ANDHRA BANK<<<

(5/3/2012 2:24:15 PM): ****STOCK ALERT-2***** ANDHRA BANK - If breaks below 116.5 may slide 114 / 110 / 108 and 104. Resistance @ 120.

(5/7/2012 10:06:13 AM): ANDHRA BANK - Told to Sell below 116.5. cmp:106. All Target Achieved. Book profit.

>>>>>BGR ENERGY<<<<<

(5/7/2012 10:20:33 AM): ****STOCK-ALERT***** BGR ENERGY - Buy above 301-303. SL below 298. Target 308/311 & 314.

(5/7/2012 1:44:17 PM): 320 NOW UNBELIVABLE FOR ME ALSO.

>>>>>IDFC<<<<<

(5/7/2012 1:57:52 PM): *****STOCK-ALERT*****:- Buy IDFC if trades above 114 for a Target of 120 and 127 with a SL of 110.

5/7/2012 2:51:23 PM): IDFC 117 BUY GIVEN AT 114

ALL THE ABOVE CALLS ARE SEND TO MY CLIENTS WHO OPEN AND TRADE WITH MY MADURAI BRANCH IN MARWADI SHARES AND FINANCE LTD., YOU CAN ALSO RECEIVE SUCH CALLS FROM ME - BOTH YAHOO AND SMS - JUST CALL ME TO OPEN ACCOUNT WITH ME - WE ARE THE DIRECT BRANCH - WE GIVE BEST TRADING SOFTWARE LIKE DIET ODIN / NOW (BOTH EXE & MOBILE) / BROWSER BASED & BEST BACK OFFICE SUPPORT. FEEL FREE TO Call at 9677924975 or 9362081313 or 0452 – 3018000

Week End or Dead End ???

As I have intimated about H&S many time here in this Blog - Today we saw a Break down.

Now What's Next??? - Where are we ?? - Are we still going to fall ??? or a Recovery from here ??? - its a Million dollar question in every one's Mind.

>>>Today Nifty made a low of 5070 and closed at 5080 which is exactly 50% retracement of Rise from 4531 to 5628.85.

>>> Hourly Chart Shows that the fall is yet to be completed, a Possible upmove for sw(4) then a fall can't be ruled out as shown on the chart above.

>>> If there is a Scope for further fall then whats the Target ???

>>> Nifty can fall upto 4950 which is 61.8% retracement. So another 130 Pts fall in Nifty is not ruled out, which is exactly the Target of Head & Shoulder formation.

>>>> TATA STEEL <<<<

When Tata Steel Call Generated as on 03rd May, 2012.

Tata Steel after the Fall as on 04th may,2012

Krishnan Venkatesh (5/3/2012 2:01:44 PM): ****STOCK ALERT***** TATA STEEL - Looks Weak if breaks and Traders below 449 on Spot. Resistance 460/464. May slide Upto 430,415 & 400. http://niftyforall.blogspot.in

Krishnan Venkatesh (5/4/2012 2:32:51 PM): First Target in Tata Steel - 430 done. Small Traders Should Book Profit & Must Enjoy

>>>>HDFC BANK<<<

Above Chart is HDFC BANK - has broken the long term Trend Line - Hope HDFC BANK can fall Next week.

>>>Wish You all a Happy Week end <<<<

Where is the Bottom???

Nifty made a Low of 5181.2 which is Exactly 78.6% of Previous Rise - sw(1) as marked on chart. Now if this Low held for tomorrow then possibility of Upmove from here - where I can assure this is sw(5) Only. Else if breaks then the last chances of sw(5) become void. Break below today's low confirm that we are on the sw(4) and need to touch the Bottom line of H&S - which should be between 5140-5150. Hope this can be a Bottom to complete the sw(4). But looking at many stocks movement today - its hard to hold today low 5181 tomorrow - may be we shall slide near to 5150.

Tata Steel today Breaks an Important Support near 449, I hope its correcting as 3-3-5 as we are in last leg as 5(3) fall as this fall may try to fill the gap left at 425 as shown on chart. A sell call has been send to my Clients in this regard. Lets see

Oh - Still Inside H&S !!!

Phewww - Nifty Still Inside the H&S - Today made a Gap up Opening above the Trend line as marked on chart - But Closing below the Trend line shows like a "throw over" also Unable to close above 200 HrMA is a matter to concern for Bulls, may favour for Bears if continue to stay below this. - So Now I have to give regular Bull count as well as Bear count as "Alt" inside white shade.

1.) As per Bullish count we have finished sub(4) at 5154.85. Ongoing wave as sw5(1) and today down move as (2) at 38.6% retracement as marked on chart. Immediate Support at 5222 as marked on chart - break below this may enable bears to come down to fill the Gap Left at 5186 or 5199 again.

2) Alternative Bear count as we are still on sw(4) as c(4) has completed today 5279 which is 61.8% retrace from the Previous fall from 5341 to 5161. If this is true then a fall below 5154 or even low can't be ruled out.

Earlier on Monday I gave a Buy Call on Nifty to my clients which gave nearly 30 Pts Profit today Morning- which was erased on the later part of the trading. But SL is still on Hold. The Call is given below.

(4/30/2012 3:01:58 PM): ****NIFTY-ALERT***** Positional / BTST:- Buy Nifty Spot Only above 5247. SL below 5220. Target 5330.

Hope 5220 wont get broken for those who are holding the Long still. Lets see tomorrow - Cheers.

MAY (be) SPECIAL - IDFC

IDFC - May Day Special.

IDFC has completed sw(2) and getting ready for a Bull Roar 3rd Wave Upmove.
Short to Medium Term Investors Start Buying above 127 for a Good Target in Coming Days. (cmp:120.95)

Head or Tail ???

Nifty still inside a Valid H&S Only - 200 Hr MA is 5156 and 5166 is a Channel Line above that H&S may get Invalidate - On the Contrary below 5222 (this count is invalidate) Nifty may see a good Sell off - as sw(c)(5) may get continue for a fall below 5154. As i said on Friday - usually H&S formed on the lower side of the Consolidation wont be effective. So a Buy call has been given to clients today with a SL of 5222. Lets See on Wednesday. Cheers!!!

Head & Shoulder again ???

Seems like a Head and Shoulder - But EW says if 5154 Hold for tomorrow or Monday - then sub wave c(5) is a truncated one, else the fall be upto 5130/5110 and 5080. But mostly a H&S formed on the Bottom side wont get effected as we say last time at 20th Dec,2011 @ 4530 also. Above 5270 this H&S get Invalidate, hope new Bullish (count) move to start any time.
Today my call on Yahoo Messenger as

*****NIFTY-ALERT***** :- If Nifty Spot breaks below 5190 then can Slide Upto 5150 / 5130 / 5110 & 5080. SL above 5223

which hit 5154 low (fitst Target) and closed at 5186. Renewed SL of 5197 also hit - as this call no more live.

April Expired !!!

Nifty Expired April serious with out much Noice.
Today I had a Buy call on Yahoo Messenger as follows.

(4/26/2012 2:47:43 PM): ****NIFTY-ALERT**** Buy Nifty Spot near 5180-85. SL below 5160. Target 5230/5250 & 5265.

Nothing more to say today. Lets wait and see how Nifty moves tomorrow.

Enough is Enough !!!

Nifty seems to have completed Double zigzag now. Second Part marked inside Square seems to have completed 3-3-5 Flat Correction which took support at 5161. Tomorrow Resistance @ 5211 & 5235.

Cat on a Wall again ?

As said Yesterday if we are in sw(c) for a fall, then today upmove should be 4th one. In that case tomorrow 5242 or 5261 plays an Important resistance as marked on chart as its a 38.2% & 50% vice versa. Break above these levels shall invalidate the present count and possibility of Bulls trigger is high near 5310 to 5320 as there a two resistance line on the Upper side channel. We shall see up to 5600 if the upper channels gets broken.

On the Contrary if 5220 & 5180 gets broken again, fall upto 5100 - 5080 as said Yesterday can't be ruled out.