Break out works.

>>Click the Chart to see in on full Screen <<

Yesterday Count got Negated as surpassed above 5222.65. Upmove continues as Yesterday's break out form falling wedge.

Now I have marked the waves as a-b-c as I feel the ongoing wave as sw(b). As shown on chart tomorrow if there is a Break above 5259 can move up to 5280 & 5310 as its a retrace of 61.8 & 78.6% vice versa.

Else unable to move above 5259 means its a completion of sw(B) and may fall down - possibility of breaking down below 5169 for sw(c).

Lot of domestic news roaming around the corner like FDI Retail & GAAR - Continuous UP move of World market helping the Bulls to move Up.

Since tomorrow is week end and nearing the expiry for the current session - may witness some interesting twist. Cheers!!!

Break Out from Falling Wedge??

>>> Click the Chart to see it on Full Screen <<<

Nifty touched 5169.3 intraday Low - exactly the bottom of the Falling wedge and gave a break out from the falling wedge, touched intraday high of of 5222.65.

Now I mark this upmove or break out as sw(4) as it did not overlapped my count of sw(1) and also it retraced exactly 50% of sw(3).

Now todays high 5222.65 is very important, if breaks this high then count becomes invalid and upmove may continue.

Else may fall up to 5154 / 5133 and 5110 for sw(5).

Lets see. Cheers!!!

On the Support Line

>>> Click the Chart to See on full Screen <<<

Even though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted that there shall be a Possibility of further Economic Stimulus - that kept the Asian and European Market in Green followed by Dow Futures also. But Nifty refused to follow it.

Even though the day started with a gap up, Nifty unable to Hold the gain, as many as stocks like Tata Motors and TCS melted.

As the fall on Nifty looks like a Falling wedge Pattern, Now its important for the level 5160 to get broken on the downside as 200 Hr MA is 5183, a break below these levels will invite more selling Pressure.Above 5210 or a break above the falling wedge may give strength to Bulls, 5128 & 5060 act as an support as it is 38% & 50% retrace vice versa.

Cheers

Island Reversal ???

>>>Nifty<<<

>>> Click the Chart to see in full screen <<<

Nifty touched the important Suport of 5190, almost ready to enter the Gap left between 5160-5190. If there is a gap down tomorrow below 5160 it can be an Island Reversal which may be a confirmation of Bearish Reversal unless the Gap left is filled in short span of time.

See the Below Example of How Nifty will behave in case of a Gap down as Island Reversal

>>>Bank Nifty<<<

>>> Click the Chart to see in full screen <<<

As I wrote on Friday Bank Nifty gave a Bearish Break down - It seems Bank Nifty has completed Sw(b) or sw(2) and may fall below the trend line as marked on chart for sw(3) or (c).

A fall is confirmed Once the Trend line gets broken as on chart.

>>>Weekly Bank Nifty<<<

Attached is the Weekly Bank Nifty Chart. A Grave Stone Doji formed on the Upper Bank of the BB is a Sell Signal and so a fall can not be Ignored from current level.

Cheers!!!

Weekly Review

>>>> Click the thumbnail to see in full screen <<<<

Finally Nifty closed out of the raising wedge and registered its Bearishness on the week end. Weekly Candle suggest highly Negative outlook in coming days.

As shown on the chart, if Price able to brake below the gap left at 5160 then Nifty may continue to fall with heavy selling pressure.

As per count, I feel that Wave B is over and C has started already.

Many queries to me why Nifty is very choppy or sluggish trade these days. I feel this choppy was due to Bank Nifty which was trading in a Bullish manner so far. Last week Bank Nifty also gave a Bearish break down, so Bank Nifty may lead the fall along with Nifty in coming days. So I suggest my friend to be cautious on Banking stocks in particular.

Have a happy weekend - Cheers

Ek tha 'Singham'

Almost one month elapsed after S&P Rating Agency held meeting with Indian Finance Ministry and issued a 90 days Notice to avoid India being downgraded and Scraped as "JUNK" Status by them. A Firm action and Policy decisions may avoid such a situation. Mr. Singh should act fast - especially to Narrow the fiscal deficit by narrowing the Subsidy burden on Diesel Prices.

Mrs. Sonia Gandhi is not an economist like Mr. singh, to be sure that Mrs. Sonia Gandhi won't allow any decision from MR. Singh which may badly hit the Vote Bank and disturb the relations with Coalition Partners like Mathaji and Mulayamji in particular.

If at all S&P downgrades India - FII's must exit India as they have it as a Policy. Market may see some severe sell off which may drag our Index to new Low.

FDI in Retail / Vodafone Tax Issue / GAAR / 2G Spectrum Scam & allocation / CWG Scam / Coal Scam & some rumours of Stock Market scam by Kethan Parik once agian are some the issues heavily damaged the Reputation of the Nation in a whole.

Other factors like Failure in Mansoon will heavily impart food Production as a result there will be a spike in Inflation.

Sudden raise in NPA in all Indian Bank like SBI - Govt's inability to fund them with immediate effect - which give a Blow.

Falling Euro is a Major issue which hurt our currency as a whole due to Green / Spain & Italy troubles.

Mr. Singham should act fast - doesn't matter after President election or before to save our Nations and Nifty.

>> Click the thumbnail to see the Chart on Full Screen<<<

Finally Nifty Broken the Raising Wedge. It seems the Upmove is over. So far the Upmove was so complicated to make counts on it. But sure that its not a Impulse wave - its just a corrective wave of 2 or B. So now the impulse down wave C or 3 has started. So the First Target can be the Gap left as marked on Chart at 5159, and may fall deeper to fill the second gap at 4868 also if there are continuous flow of Bad news.

So Lets wait for tomorrows move - its going to be very interesting as its Weekend closing - Friday. Lot of Actions yet to be seen. Cheers

The Harami Day

Nifty Closed near 5300 - with a Bearish Harami Candle near the bottom of the raising wedge.

Tomorrows Important events Like IIP Data / Infy & TCS Results may dictate the trend of Nifty from Here.

Spain announces $79 billion austerity package today may change the global market movement for today and tomorrow.

Interesting day tomorrow with lot of events on Card. Lets get ready to face the action. Cheers!!!

Click the thumb nail to see the chart in full screen

Nifty managed to move above 5342 (my earlier sl) and closed at 5346. Its on the Way to fill the Gap left on 04th April, 2012 between 5338 - 5358.

Alternative Count in shaded as A-B-C-D-E - which may get completed at 5378.

As per Eod Chart - Nifty is above 61.8% retrace of 5301 - Once able to cross 5378 may test 5445 which is 78.6% retrace. Please refer our Weekly Chart Posted on 07th July,2012 as I'm attaching again for your reference.

Click the thumb nail to see the chart in full screen

Cheers!!!

Nifty Vs GAAR Vs Euro ???

Nifty took support near 5260 - a trend line as marked on chart. So the dilemma is there still 1 more upmove pending for c(5) or is this a start for down trend.

So whats the Answer for all these ? So before that following question to be answered !!

1) Is GAAR Completed Exempted ? If So why PM has not finalized it still ? Many Business Channels broad casting their own view with FLASH news and confusing the Innocent Traders!!!.

2) Is Euro Zone trouble is Solvable - If so what Happened in Last Euro Summit and Now why Germany & France in Confusion ? Why Spain & Italy still having Pressure on Bonds Yield above 7%.

3) If RBI can Handle Rupee through OMO's (Open Market Operations) by Buying Rs.12,000 Crore worth of Govt. Securities and told last time that it managed to Keep the Rupee slide in Control, and Later last week RBI said OMO's has nothing to do with Rupee Movement.

4) FII's are always giving Negative Outlook and threatening India to Down grade - Rumour of India to be removed from BRICS and Now they are Pumping more that 5000 Crores worth in Indian Equity Market ?? Why ??

5) Is there any Accounting malpractice or Satyam Like Fraud case found by the Govt in companies Like JSW Steel / DLF or Essar Oil ???


All these questions are un answerable and Nifty too sluggish with out any clear direction. Only answer I have is if Nifty able to break the Trend line 5260 then we can say that Nifty started Wave C or 3 on the Down side.

Else if able to move up with out breaking the trend line - then there can be one more upside move left.

So as usual lets wait for tomorrows Market to Open. Till then Bye. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review

>>> Click the thumbnail to see in Full Screen <<<

As Shown on Eod Chart - 5342-45 act as a Strong Resistance Zone, Cross above may show 5446. 5290 & 5190 act as a Good Support. A Break below 5190 may be a Trend Reversal and Sharp Fall not ruled Out. I Hope this may be the end of Sw(2) or (B).

>>> Click the thumbnail to see in Full Screen <<<<

As per attached Hourly Chart - A break below the second channel as marked with Arrow may see a selling pressure. Hope the sw(c) is completed as per the Chart. Please refer earlier post for more clarity.

Trend:-

As Nifty stays in Highly Over Bought Position - FII's remain Net Buyers in Cash and FnO last week. A Break above 5400 may change the Entire trend to Bullish.

But a Break below 5190 is to confirm that the Upside move is completed and there can be a Sharp fall of 300-400 Points.

Next Week:-

It was a Choppy trade last week. World market & Indian Market failed to Cheer inspite of actions taken by ECB / UK's Asset Buying Program and CRR Cut by China Central Bank. Even though Rupee has appreciated still cautious mood as there is a week Mansoon and worry about physical deficit.

Last Friday US Job Data shows that their Economy still in Danger. Also raising Bond Yield of Spain & Italy may be an another Ticking Bomb like Greece. I hope sooner or later France & Germany may express their dis-like to be a part of euro Zone like Finland said last week.

Next week is going to be very interesting as Chinese to give Q2 GDP data & Our Indian IIP Data on July 12th. Tech Giants Infosys & TCS to reveal their Q1 Earning on the Same Day.

Any Break below 5190 may see lot of Pressure on Selling Side as there is lot of open Interest PUT writing seen on 5200 & 5300 and also Call writing seen on 5300 & 5400.

So Lets wait for the Interesting week ahead.

Again Friday with Lot of News

Dear All,

Last Friday we had Lot of News in India & EU like GAAR & Euro Summit. Now also we are entering the Friday with Lot of Good News Like

1) Bank of England boost Asset Buying Program by 50 Bln Pounds.

2) China Central Bank leaves Reserve Ratio unchanged, cuts 1-year deposit rate by 25 Bps to 6% and 1-year lending rate by 31 Bps to 3%

3) Govt of India may any time announce Foreign Direct Investment in the multi-brand retail sector any time.

4) In King Fisher Airlines Issue - Bankers have asked Management to provide valuation detail on property sale, SBI to get 25-30% of KFA asset sale proceeds, Rest of the banks to get sale proceeds as per respective share.

As per Technical's there is nothing more to say, as Nifty made a high of 5333 and a Break above 5342-45 may change the trend and a Possible upmove upto 5446 where our earlier counts may get changed. Lets wait for the Interesting Weekend close for tomorrow move. Cheers.

Magic Candles @ 5317 @ 10:14 am

Dear All,

Nifty not giving any direction and boaring too. Today able to close above 5300 and holding above 5265 & 5280. Let Nifty give some direction tomorrow at least. For the time being if Nifty is in ABC - C has almost retraced till 61.8% of Wave A which is at 5317. The magic of this Number is 5317 was the top made Yesterday @ 10:14 am and today also at 10:14 am Exactly. As I see 5317 is 61.8% retrace of Wave A.

>>>Click the Thumbnail to see the Chart in Full Screen <<<<

Since today is a Holiday for US market and No further news flow from world market - I think Nifty Can't give any direction. As said Nifty support stands at 5280 / 5265 & 5250. Resistance @ 5317 / 5342 / 5378 & 5442. I hope if Nifty able to close above 5342 then Next too levels are in reachable distance to Nifty. Lets wait for the Weak end closing. Cheers!!!

Ready for Reversal ??

Today Nifty moved inside a 'very close Range' - So I'm giving the sub minit counts with 5 minute chart - Since We don't know where Nifty is getting reversed - its becoming important to look into 5 minute chart.

Morning Nifty traded above 5301, came down and closed at 5287 shows the strength of the Resistance. Now Nifty had a Immediate support at 5265 and 5342 Resistance as shown on chart - is Important for tomorrow - may decide the trend. Cheers!!!

Nifty on a Raising Wedge

Yes, Nifty Clearly Travelling Inside a Raising Wedge. Since i feel this upmove is Corrective ABC in Nature - Bulls need to worry a Lot. Added with Lot of Negative Divergence shows that Bear may ENTER any time.

Today Nifty has exactly done 61.8% retrace @ 5301.7 (Please refer Eod chart on Weekly Review posted on Saturday) of Previous fall from 5630 to 4770. To be noted here that today Nifty can't close above 5280 which is sw3(2) of previous fall as marked on Chart. Finally today Move also inside a Minor raising wedge which I feel is sw(c) as it is 1-5 in nature.

Now If Nifty breaks 5250 then a fall upto 5154-60, which is the bottom of the raising wedge. If Nifty able to trade above 5301 & 5342 then it can travel upto 5446 which is 78.6% retrace.

So Lot of Action Left for tomorrow - Lets wait and See - Cheers!!!

Nifty - Weekly Review

Dear All,

Here by I am Posting my Weekly Review on Both Eod & Intraday Based Chart analysis. As I have Changed many of my Counts in both Eod & Intrady - I feel this becomes necessary as my Earlier counts have breached some levels.

Here it is ....

>>>> Nifty Eod <<<<

>>>Click the Thumbnail to See in Full Screen<<<

Earlier fall from 5630 to 4770 as marked as A-B-C - have changed to 1-5 and ongoing upmove has been changed from 1-5 to A-B-C - means I feel this upmove as corrective rather than Impulse.

As given on Chart this Ongoing A-B-C is travelling inside a Expanding Triangle and have almost near 61.8% retrace at 5301-03 level.

>>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<<<

>>>Click the Thumbnail to See in Full Screen<<<

Hourly Chart gives a clear picture - Nifty traveled inside a Channel as given on Chart from 08th June to 29th June says that its surely not a 1-5 Pattern. So the Ongoing move has been labelled as A-B-C, as B has done a double zig zag. Break above 5160 has confirmed that C has started which is of 1-5 in nature. 5268 is the top of sw(2) of Wave 1 as it plays as an important resistance here. Next week nifty faces Important resistance at 5315 / 5342 / 5375 / 5450.

Once this corrective Upmove completes - Nifty should start a Big wave 3 down fall. A break below 5160 should confirm this.

Conclusion :- I have changed my entire Wave Pattern as I feel this necessary. Apart from technical lets see some the Important Macro Economical points to strengthen my views here.

>>> Almost all the World Index are Looking Bearish - Most importantly Dow / S&P looks same like Nifty's Bearish Move.

>>> Now Euro Zone should be focused on as it heavily Impacting the world market. Friday Euro Summit and followed by world market and commodity markets including Our Equity market cheered as I see this as an Over Reaction or Technically as sub wave C movement. It looks like a "Doctor agreed for an Operation" and the 'Patient cheered'. The real Pain comes only when Operation gets completed successfully. As I know that Spain's Bail out is not yet considered on Friday Summit as Spain the the 4th Largest Country in Euro Zone after Germany/France/Italy and Greece. Spains Bond marked Yield jumped form .50 to 6.58% and the Govt is ready to pay for 7% means that its financial situation is getting worse. If spain ask for an Bail Out - then Not even Euro or US or IMF can bail out then - which is I feel that the world Markets will be rattled with Panic and Choas. Any fall in euro zone nation may give a Big Panic in Forex Market - including India.

>>> I think Domestic Issues in India is worse than we expected.Most Importantly current account deficit (CAD) shot up to $78.2 billion (4.2 per cent of gross domestic product) for the year ended March 2012, from $46 billion (2.7 per cent of GDP) the previous year. This is the highest level of CAD ever — both in absolute terms and as a proportion of GDP — according to the Reserve Bank of India. What does it means - In spite of many Action taken by RBI in Interest Rates and Bond Market - Situation is getting out of Control form the Govt and RBI - as a Result Rupee Slide Continues - So Only Last RBI monetary Policy RBI Governor Subbha Rao denied any Rate Cut - advised Govt to reduce their Expenditure. An economist Speak Less and Reveals then Truth rather a Politician don't.

Hence the Govt is ready to Tax every thing as most of the services in India to be taxed with 12% - So ever Poor Indian should get ready to pay the Govt. Then why not the Govt can Tax FII's - But in Reality we found lot of Chaos and Confusion in the P.M. Manmohans Camp. I think Not Only Vodafone - Every M&A (merger and acquisition), may be even a PE investment may be taxed in future.

Finally I strong feel FII's wont like a Country where there are Political Instability / Lack of Policy Decision's / High Inflation / Worst GDP and finally worst Current Account Deficit.

Note:- Please note that all these above Technical and fundamental reasons are my own views and may be right or wrong. Should be taken only as education point of view and Only Price action should confirm the next move. I may change my views based on Price action and Technical Point of view. So if any one want to take any action in their Investment and Trading decision should consult your well trained adviser.

Hope Every one enjoying the week end. Lets wait till the market opens on Monday. Have a Nice week end. Cheers!!!

"Fry" Day & Weak End

To be Noted that Nifty unable to Cross 5160 for the 4th time today also. Even in the Last 2 days I have mentioned the same. Again not Staying below 5130 also for the 2nd time today. So the Movement shall be decided once Price breaks these levels.

Since I have been using bearish counts - I hope the 2nd sub wave has been completed today and 3rd is on the way. sw(c)(3)(iii) to get start from tomorrow. Hope tomorrow can be a Gap down Logically and also seeing the Global Markets Movements..

1) Global Issue:- Looking at the Bad news roaming around the world market like JP Morgan's "London Whale" 9 Billion Loss & German Chancellor Angela Merkal said in German Parliament Yesterday that "There is no quick fix for the euro-zone's debt crisis and that the introduction of euro bonds at this stage would be "economically wrong," - Shows that Euro Problem may Deepen Further. Hence forth world Market may fall heavily today and tomorrow too.

2) Domestic Issue:- A New Tax Notice may be issued to Vodafone - may reflect in our Equity Market too.

So lets wait for the "FRY-Day" & hope its going to be Week end also. Cheers!!!

Expiry Day - Nifty

As mentioned Yesterday Nifty can't Hold above 5156 which is 61.8% retrace, today formed a Possible double top as given on the above chart. A gap left was filled today at 5130. Now 2 Possibility as Nifty has completed c(2) and getting ready for a fall, a fall below 5129 may confirm that - as marked in red color count. Else Nifty may move up for c(2)(c) - a move above 5156 may take nifty to the next retrace of 78.6% which is 5174.

As mentioned earlier - all these bearish scenario get truncated if Nifty trades above 5190 with volume and Bullish count comes in to effect. Please refer previous post for those counts.

Go Down Nifty ?

Nifty took support as usual near 5090. Now the fall has confirmed that we are in Wave C, hence we need to fall from here. Today we have completed C(1) and a possible retrace upto 5145 / 5156 & 5173 for C(2) for tomorrow. If this count is right then Nifty should fall from here for C(3). As I said Yesterday if A=C means Nifty should fall atleast upto 5040 or below that level.

All these Counts are Invalid if Nifty trades above 5190, and the Alternative Scenario will come into force as I have marked Yesterday. Please Refer Yesterday Chart for the Alternative counts.

Cheers!!!

Which Way to Go - Nifty

As Wrote You on Friday, Nifty not able to Hold above 5190. Nifty moving with High voltage of Volatility between 5190 to 5090. I have given two Scenario here Bearish & Bullish.

As per Bearish we are on sw(c) - means Nifty may rest near 5040 as right to say Wave A = C.

As per Bullish (round with Yellow Circle) - means Nifty on sw3(ii) which may find support near 5080-90 level.

Lets See. Cheers!!!

Nifty with RBI

RBI will announce steps to improve markets on Monday: Pranab Mukherjee.

Kolkata: Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Saturday reassured that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will make some strategic announcements on Monday to improve the sentiment on the Dalal Street.

"The Reserve Bank will announce some measures on Monday that will improve the markets,"

Pranab said in Kolkata.

"Steps have been taken in consultation with the RBI Governor, expect announcements on Monday that will improve the market condition," Pranab added.

>>> NIFTY EOD <<<

>Click the above Thumbnail to see in Full Screen< <<>>

Nifty forming an Expanding Triangle. As I have mentioned in my last week Post, nifty need to fill a gap left in 5126 which means a possibility of hitting the top of the line as given on chart.

Since FM has announced on Saturday that RBI to announce some important steps to boost market condition, it seems nifty may try to fill the gap left above.

For the last 2 trading sessions, what ever the global market conditions, nifty able to hold 5090 successfully due to the market rumours that RBI may steps in.

Now as I have marked on chart, if the Red color line on the bottom gets broken that is 5080-5090 then there may be some selling pressure to step in.

>>>Nifty Hourly <<<



As per Hourly Chart - its seems Like Nifty has done a a-b-c Last friday and completed C(2) - Now on Monday or in Coming days if 5190 is very crucial - if breaks then these counts becomes Invalid.