IIP Vs RBI's Policy Action

Dear All,

IIP data as published today fell by 1.8 per cent versus 2.5 per cent in the month of May. Point here to watch is capital goods sector fell by 27.9% which looks very bad. Now RBI is under Pressure from India Inc to Cut Rates.

RBI is very clear that a Rate Cut at this Point of time is dangerous which may stoke Inflation, as controlling Inflation is the first Priority for it. As Monsoon also remaining as a threat, which may impact our GDP data along with inflation.

So what Mr. Chidhambaram need to tackle the situation - Is he ready to Kick start the Reforms Process -

Will he Reduce the Fuel Subsidy on Diesel and more on Petrol to reduce the fiscal deficit.

Will he pass the bill for FDI retail in Single Brand with the support of their Rebel coalition partner - Mamthaji and Mulayam ji.

What and when will be the GAAR be finalized - Dont forget that Same Mr. Chidhambaram when he was the FM in 2008 - made a Policy in sub Account - when Market had a 2 down circuit.

So the world Analyst and Economist keep on downgrading our Indian Outlook. Who ever it may be S&P or Moody or Fitch - no difference in them.

Moody's Investors Service becomes the latest to cut India's growth forecasts this week.

As already CLSA and Citigroup cut their outlooks for India to 5.4 percent and 5.5 percent respectively.

An Lack of Policy decision, RBI's non-ability to react, Poor Monsoon, Slow Growth and wide range of Corruption every where are the said reason behind these.

>>>> NIFTY <<<<<

>>>Click the chart to see in full screen<<<

As shown in the Chart - looks like a Reverse H&S - But I feel that when ever a IHS formed on the Upper side may not get succeed.

If Nifty keeps falling it must breach 5300 and 5270 to make this pattern invalid. But if gets support from here - then a rally of another 300 points not ruled out.

EW suggest that a fall is inevitable as I have posed on tuesday. Refer that for clarity. As per my count nifty should breach 5032 and should make a low upto 4900 to 4800.

Lets see tomorrow as friday is an week end closing. Cheers!!!

Bulls are Tiered ???

Dear All,

Now its time for Telecom Stocks to get battered. Vodafone already had a tussle with Tax issue, Reliance communication is in deep trouble for Credit crunch. After failure in Rcom's IPO for Flag Telecom in Singapore, it knocked the doors of SBI for 3000 Crore Loan. Now Airtel Results shows that its suffering to sustain on both top line and Bottom line.

During the time of 3G action telecom operators across india has bid for it to boost their Revenue - as they faced a neck to neck competition in the sector. It seems Private Operators had paid 51,000 Crores for bidding 3G - hopping that may increasing their profit. Many got license and started their service - now realized that they can't do nothing as Revenues are not increasing.

Result shows that the Interest shoot up more than the Revenue.

Rcom had a Debt of 28 times more than their Revenue.

Tata Tele too in trouble as it lost almost 10% of its customer in last 1 Year after it ties with

Airtel now paying a Interest of 4.2% which was 2% previous Year. Now Bharti Airtel is planning for a IPO - Bharti Infratel - its tower Unit.

Govt. had a Major role in Destroying this Telecom sector via - 2G Scam.

>>>>>Nifty<<<<<

>Click the Chart to see on Full Screen<

As wrote on Monday - Nifty today touched 5376 and fell down to 5331. As per Channels marked on Chart - every time when the channel end,Nifty retraced atleast 38.2% or 50% once a sub wave is completed. A fall below 5270 may confirm further weakness.

Cheers!!!

Time to be CAUTIOUS !!!

Dear All,

Every Day different types of Bad News - seems like Entire world market including Indian markets are not listening to it, kept moving up. But the real ticking bomb is major Blue chips around the world are showing some or to say it first time slow down. Example like Microsoft the IT Giant in US showed Negative Result after it came into Public. It shows that the victims are every where and all around the world. Standard Chartered is now on the lime light and facing trouble for its Iranian Transaction, earlier we know HSBC also in trouble.

In India Vodafone case is running with out an end. Many Indian Banks witnessing a raising in NPA and even may increase further - if drought get declared due to their larger exposure in Agri Loan. Liquidity also in trouble due to RBI's right control and uncontrollable Inflation & worst GDP Figures.

All these shows that the Storm is getting ready to blow, So every one should understand it and get yourself ready for it.

So what does Technical Says :-

It seems like Nifty forming a Flat Correction. As per theory - a 3-3-5 correction is in formation. If that is the Case - may be Nifty should move like as shown below

Pattern 1:-

Above pattern is a Flat Correction A-B-C - which means wave B wont move above Wave A top and the down fall for Wave C should touch the bottom of Wave A.

That means Nifty may touch 5032 for wave C.

Pattern 2 :-

In this pattern wave B should exceed top of Wave A and should fall for Wave C. In this Case Wave C should break the low of Wave A. Means Nifty may fall below 5032. Possible Target can be 4900 or even 4800 in worst case.

>>>Click the Chart to see it on Full Screen<<

Now lets try to understand whats here in Nifty. As shown on the above chart, Nifty today made a high of 5350, previous high is 5348. If we take this as similar to pattern 1, then a Fall for Wave C should start form here to touch 5032.

As I said Yesterday (Please refer yesterday Post in case you have not read that) Nifty should move near to 5378-80 level, in chart marked as Key Resistance in Green colored, then Nifty fall for Wave C could be aggressive - Possibly may break 5032 for a Target of 4800 or even 4900 in worst case.

So Interesting days ahead - Lets wait for it. Cheers

Good Start

Dear All,

Today Nifty Started the Week with a Gap up. After a Massive run up of world market last friday, Nifty reacted positively today. Problems are always there and keep continuing - Only Optimistic words from Mario Draghi or Angela Morkel or even our FM Chidhambaram in India running the Market to High every day.

>>>Click the Chart to see it on Full Screen<<<

Is there any thing changed fundamentally - the answer is NO. Fiscal Deficit / Inflation / Drought or even Prices or Petrol keeps on Increasing day by day. No concrete action from Govt., Only words, words, words - there is no differences between these leaders.

But Trade is different form all these Blaw Blaw Blaw...

As per chart today - Nifty is riding for a sub wave C.

So as per theory if A = C then A = 214 Points & C should Rally for 214 Point from 5164 which means we have a Target of 5378. Today almost completed 61.8% retrace of sub wave A means Nifty still have another 100 Point rally pending from today's close of 5274. So lets wait to see some more Green. Cheers

Weekly Update

Dear All,

On 31st July, have told you Nifty has to do sw(b) and the possible target upto 5107 or near to it.

Attached above is Updated chart as B wave is again divided as a-b-c, as I see there is a Head and Shoulder formation on chart, break below the trend line as marked may see 5107 as given earlier.

Attached is 5 min chart - shows clear picture of Head and Shoulder as MACD gives a Negative sign and support my view for 5107.

So is there any Alternative View, Yes

>>ALTERNATIVES FOR NIFTY<<<

Attached above is the Eod chart - As 50 & 200 dma took support at 5164 and the Trend line support suggest a possible upmove from here upto 5300 or more to fill the gap left above.

Hourly Chart also suggest a Reverse Head and Shoulder Plus a Bullish Pole Flag formation - which should give a Break out next week may target 5300+.

>>> Stock <<<>>>ICICI BANK <<

On 30th July Sell given on ICICI Bank as follows - have updated the chart also - Refer Our Earlier Post as given above chart...

(03/Aug/2012 09:35:10): *****STOCK-UPDATE***** ICICI BANK made a low of 945, below our first target 950. Sell given on 30th July at 970. Hold for second target 930 & 900 soon

Peformed as per below chart

>>>>Stock<<<>>>SBIN<<<

Earlier I have Posed SBIN on 20th July when it was at 2134 - SBIN made a Low of 1931

As per the above chart - SBIN may move up for sw(4) upto 2074 and may fall further for making a fresh low.

>>Stock<<<>>TATA MOTORS<<

Sell given on Tata Motor as on 20th July - near 223. Made a Low of 203 on 26th and still more to go on coming days as per given below

>>>Stock<<<>>>>PANTALOON<<<

We had an Excellent Profit on Pantaloon - As I not posted the Chart earlier - Posting the chart for the first time.

23 Jul, 2012 9:51:16 AM *****STOCK-ALERT***** Sell & Hold PANTALOON RETAIL below 177 for a Target of 169 & 162. SL above 184. (all cash levels)

26 Jul, 2012 10:59:49 AM*****STOCK-update***** PANTALOON all target achieved. Sell given on 23rd July @ 177. Cmp:162.50. Book Full Profit & Exit. Profit 14.50 X 2000 = Rs.29000/- Hope All enjoy the Call

>>>>Stock<<<<>>>>>CHAMBAL FERTILIZER<<<

Chambal Fertilizer - Not posed earlier - So attaching the chart for the first time - But send calls to clients..

23 Jul, 2012 1:21:24 PM *****STOCK-ALERT***** Sell CHAMBAL FERTILIZER Futures if breaks on cash below 73 for a Target of 70.40 / 67.30 & 63.30. SL above 75.

26 Jul, 2012 12:07:48 PM *****STOCK-UPDATE***** CHAMBAL FERTILIZER cmp: 70.50. Sell given on 23rd July @ 73. First Target achieved. Book 50% Profit. Profit So Far 2.50 X 4000 = Rs. 10,000/-

Also stock made a Low of 68 on 30th July (near 2nd Target) and also informed clients to Book More Profit, which I dont have that message now.

At Present Stock closed above 70 and even now the stock is a Sell on Rise Only.


Disclaimer :- All the above Charts on Nifty and Stocks are Purely baed on Technical's Only. I may change my views as per market conditions also. Readers of this Blog should understand the Risk before taking any position.

Happy Week end and Cheers!!!

Nifty - What Can be Next ?

Dear All,

Nifty not moving and stuck in a small range ??

So many got confused - What can be Next ???

Possibility 1 as per Hourly Chart :-

>>>Click the chart to See it on full screen<<<

From Feb to March, 2012 Nifty fell from 5629 to 5171 in just 13 Candles and Retraced upto 61.8% in just 4 Candles.

Same happened now as marked with a Box and Circle.

So Is Nifty going for a Fall Next as happened in Previous Session ???

If that is the Case then a Fall upto 5 to 6% may happen in Just 12 Trading Session ???

Possibility 2 as per Hourly Chart :-

>>>Click the chart to See it on full screen<<<

As per Attached Hourly Chart - Looks like a Inverted Head And Shoulder.

If that is the case - then a fall upto 5150 to complete sw(b) and may shoot up above 5240 and may complete sw(c) - for a rally for another 200 Points may not ruled out.


>>> Axis Bank <<<

>>>Click the chart to See it on full screen<<<

If Axis Bank has given a Break out - Get ready for a Rally- But wait for a day or two since volume is not supporting and Indicators are still silent.

Nifty Confused ?

Nifty to face a Key Resistance at 5257.75.

Above 5 Min chart shows that Nifty is passing on the Trend Line. But todays Negative divergence suggest that the trend line may get broken tomorrow.

The course of further movement on Nifty is explained on Yesterday's Post. Refer

http://niftyforall.blogspot.in/2012/07/no-crr-cut-then-where-is-bear.html

No CRR Cut - then Where is the Bear ?

>>>NIFTY<<<

>>>> Click the chart to see it on full screen <<<<

Todays upmove looks like a 1-5 pattern, in such a case - the On going B wave is again forming a A-B-C. As marked on chart sw(a) got completed near 5233 and may fall upto 5107 to fill the first gap and to complete sw(b) and may raise upto 5280 or 5302 to complete B wave.

>>>ICICI BANK<<<

(30/Jul/2012 11:43:08): *****STOCK-ALERT***** Sell & Hold ICICI BANK near 970. Cmp:968. Target 950 & 930. SL above 983.(all cash levels)

31-07-12, 11-40-31 am ****STOCK-UPDATE***** Sell ICICI BANK given Yesterday on 968. Low made 952.70 - almost near our first Target 950. Hold for Next Target. Profit so far 16 X 250 = Rs.4000. Enjoy

RBI Rate Cut Buzz - Nifty Jumps 100 Pts

Nifty Jumped 100 Point on hope of RBI may cut Interest Rate tomorrow. along with European Markets ran high on Hopes from FED & ECB may do some thing positively for Sinking Euro nations like Greece & Spain.

As a Result Nifty breached 5169 and invalid the Previous count of 1-5. So now ABC come into effect as given on chart above. As such the On going wave should be B.

5217-19 seems to be a strong resistance, if breaks then may see an upmove upto 5228 & 5280.

Unable to cross may test support levels like 5190, 5150, 5077 & 5032.

Cheers!!!

Bear Domination

Even after Presidential Election Govt maintain its Silence - hence Stock market becomes nervous + 51 Securities removed from FnO - Resulted in Yesterday News of Margin Triggered - resulted in heavy sell off in Mid Cap stocks

Today rumour about drought declaration on Monday by Govt. and followed by Panic in PSU Bank Stocks as rumours of Agri Loans may get waved and fear of NPA may raise - as result SBI / Andhra Bank / PNB and Vijaya Bank got hammered. Bank Nifty lost all the gain in the Second part of the trade.

The above chart I have marked the two possibilites in next Week.

As marked on White Color :- Raise upto 5190 for 3(2), may be can break the channel and fill the gap left as marked on chart. In this Case sw(3) can once again Extend as it violate the sw(1).

As marked on Yellow Color:- Can come down to fill the gap left on the bottom (todays gap up) and may raise upto 5160 to complete sw4. This move is a Possible one.

Third Possibility may be sw(4) is completed and moving now for sw(5) as shown on chart.

Hence the conclusion is still more pain left next week also. As I have warned for last 1 month, Nifty is now really making a fall faster than expected.

Wish you all a very Happy week End. Cheers!!!

On the Line of Support - 5040

>>> Click the above thumbnail to see in full screen<<<

Attached above is Eod Chart. Today Important 50 & 200 dma broken decisively, means the Entire Picture turning slowly in favour of Bear. Also the Channel Pattern shows that Nifty may test 4900 or below.

>>> Click the above thumbnail to see in full screen<<<

Attached above is the 15 Mins Chart and marked all Extension waves, as Nifty has fallen with lot of extension waves. I feel this may help some beginners to learn also.

As per I feel that 3rd wave is not yet finished, and so 3(5) is still on. 5040 is the previous low made on 18th June, hence today Nifty able to close above 5040 means a Minor bounce back for tomorrow is not ruled out.

So our Readers of this blog who are in short should maintain intraday sl of 5093 and hold the Shorts.

As the Overall trend looks weak in favour of Bear, the Ultimate fall may be up to 4860 or near.

Hope all find usefull by reading this Blog.

Performance :-

krish_venkatesh (25/Jul/2012 12:14:17): *****STOCK-ALERT***** Sell & Hold if TATA STEEL breaks below 388 with a SL of 398 on closing basis. Target 377 & 366. (all cash Levels)


krish_venkatesh (26/Jul/2012 10:19:29): *****STOCK-ALERT***** ORIENTAL BANK (OBC) Sell if trades below 231 for a Target of 228 / 225 & 220. SL 237.


krish_venkatesh (26/Jul/2012 10:56:27): *****STOCK-update***** PANTALOON all target achieved. Sell given on 23rd July @ 177. Cmp:162.50. Book Full Profit & Exit. Profit 14.50 X 2000 = Rs.29000/- Hope All enjoy the Call

krish_venkatesh (25/Jul/2012 10:17:14): *****Stock Update***** NIFTY Sell given on 20th July @ 5210. Cmp:5100. Profit 50 X 120 = Rs.6000. Book atleast 50% Profit here and Enjoy

krish_venkatesh (26/Jul/2012 10:59:49): *****STOCK-update*****
SBIN cmp: 2060. Sell given on 20th July @ 2140. Book Full Profit & Exit. Call Closed. PRofit 125 X 80 = Rs.10,000.Hope All enjoy the Call

krish_venkatesh (26/Jul/2012 11:41:52): *****STOCK-UPDATE***** CHAMBAL FERTILIZER cmp: 70.50. Sell given on 23rd July @ 73. First Target achieved. Book 50% Profit. Profit So Far 2.50 X 4000 = Rs. 10,000/-

26-07-12, 01-43-44 pm *****Update****:- ORIENTAL BANK now 225. Achieved Second Target. Start Booking Profit. Profit So far 6X1000 = Rs.6000. Enjoy

26-07-12, 03-19-38 pm*****Update****:-Book Full Profit in Tata Steel 382 & Oreintal Bank (OBC) at 225 and Exit. Hope Enjoyed the Profit

Relief Rally ??

As said Yesterday, there is not change in today trade also as the Break out from the falling wedge still persist. If this is going to be the sw(4) then Nifty is moving towards 5167-69 as marked on chart as its the 50% retrace of the previous fall. As I feel the gaps are going to be left unfilled and may fall once it completes sw(4).

So if any readers of this Blog are in Short Position in Nifty then 5169 should be the Stop Loss. Break above this level may trigger a further rally to fill the above 2 gaps. Hence this wave counts become invalid and may change to ABC instead of 123.

Lets wait and see. Cheers!!!

Todays Performance :-

krish_venkatesh (23/Jul/2012 09:51:16): *****STOCK-ALERT***** Sell & Hold PANTALOON RETAIL below 177 for a Target of 169 & 162. SL above 184. (all cash levels)

krish_venkatesh (23/Jul/2012 10:38:28): *****STOCK-ALERT***** Sell & Hold TATA MOTORS Only Below 217 for a Target of 212 / 200 & 190. SL above 222 (all Cash levels)

krish_venkatesh (23/Jul/2012 13:21:24): *****STOCK-ALERT***** Sell CHAMBAL FERTILIZER Futures if breaks on cash below 73 for a Target of 70.40 / 67.30 & 63.30. SL above 75.

krish_venkatesh (25/Jul/2012 10:07:24): *****Stock Update***** TATA MOTORS Sell given on 23rd July @ 217. Cmp:212.50. First Target Achieved. Book atleast 50% Profit & Enjoy. Profit 5 X 1000 = Rs.5000

krish_venkatesh (25/Jul/2012 12:40:33): *****STOCK-UPDATE***** PANTALOON made a low of 168.80. First Target of 169 got achieved. Hold for Next Target 162. Others Book Profit. Sell given @ 177. Profit 8 X 2000 = Rs.16000. Enjoy

Chambal Fertlizer made a Low of 70.7 - Lot Size 4000. Sell given at 73. Profit so far 2.3 X 4000 = Rs.9,200.

Is Bear Waiting ?

Nifty made a choppy session today, Unlike Yesterday Nifty can't move any where, rather Opened and Closed at 5128 and made a doji (on Eod), also came out of the falling wedge channel as shown on the Hourly Chart. It may be a seen as a Interim break out too.

But as per Wave Count Nifty may move up to 5162 for sw(iv) which is 50% retrace of the Falling wedge channel as there is a Positive divergence seen on macd in 15 mins chart also.

But still Nifty is in the grip of Bear untill Nifty able to trade above 5170 with volume. Chances of sliding upto 5080 to 5060 is immense.

Cheers!!!

Bears are Back ?

Yes, it seems Bears are Back as expected with lot of bad news flowing round the corner. Yesterday I wrote Nifty ready to fall for sw(iii) and it may be deep. As predicted Nifty made a Low of 5108.25 and confirmed the Bears Entry.

Now whats next, As shown on Chart sw(3)is going on. There are 2 possibilities marked on chart. If sw(3)(iii) is completed at 5108 then we may bounce upto 5180-84 for sw(iv) and then a fall to completed (v).

Next alternative (as shown on Yellow colour) is we may open gap down and 5060 and may retrace upto 5127 for sw(iv) and fall below to complete (v).

So the Performance is as follows :-

(20/Jul/2012 10:48:30): ****NIFTY-ALERT***** :- Sell & Hold as Positional If Nifty Spot breaks below 5210. Target 5130 & 5060. SL above 5260. cmp:5230

23-07-12, 12-59-04 pm *****NIFTY-UPDATE**** Nifty Sell given on 20th July @ 5210. First Target 5130 almost achieved. cmp:5134. Book Profit and Hold remaining with 5170 SL.

(20/Jul/2012 10:47:04): *****STOCK-ALERT***** :- Sell SBIN if breaks below 2140. Target 2080 & 2027. SL above 2173 (All Cash Levels)

23-07-12, 12-33-26 pm ****STOCK-UPDATE***** SBIN sell given @ 2140 on 23rd July. Cmp:2100. Can Book 50% Profit.

23-07-12, 10-38-16 am *****STOCK-ALERT***** Sell & Hold TATA MOTORS Only Below 217 for a Target of 212 / 200 & 190. SL above 222 (all Cash levels)

23-07-12, 09-50-39 am*****STOCK-ALERT***** Sell & Hold PANTALOON RETAIL below 177 for a Target of 169 & 162. SL above 184.

23-07-12, 02-47-05 pm Pantaloon & Tata Motors Sell Triggered and Falling. Nifty Broken Important Support of 5127. Next Support at 5060. SBIN 2096. Hold all the Shorts and Enjoy the Fall.

23-07-12, 01-21-15 pm*****STOCK-ALERT***** Sell CHAMBAL FERTILIZER Futures if breaks on cash below 73 for a Target of 70.40 / 67.30 & 63.30. SL above 75.

23-07-12, 02-50-06 pm - Chambal Sell Call Triggered Now.

Cheers!!!

Weekly Review

>>> NIFTY <<<

Nifty so far travelling inside the Pitchfork gives us a choppy and sluggish movement, Next week if able to break below then a fall can't be ruled out.

As I wrote on Friday Nifty can't able to break above 5259 confirmed that completion of sw(b) or sw(ii) and now ready to fall for sw(c) or (iii).

A fall below the channel line as marked on chart - a fall not ruled out, may be it can be a deep fall too.

Given above is Intraday Chart for Nifty - After completion of sw(B) at 5348 - C must start with 1-5. Rather the possibility of a-b-c again is not ruled out. So marked here with 2 possible alternatives. Ofcouse I see both are on Bearish side Only.

After completing sw(A) or sw(1) at 5169, sw(B) or sw(2) retraced upto 50% of the previous sw upto 5257.75. A fall below 5197 may confirm the next fall. Middle line of the Pitchfork giving a good support, if breaks then a fall may continue.

As I have already advised my clients to sell Nifty as mentioned below

(20/Jul/2012 10:48:30): ****NIFTY-ALERT***** :- Sell & Hold as Positional If Nifty Spot breaks below 5210. Target 5130 & 5060. SL above 5260. cmp:5230

This week lets discuss some the stocks also here

>>> SBIN <<<

After Breaking the Trend line as shown on chart - State Bank of India confirmed the Fall in coming days.

Advised all my clients to sell as given below

(20/Jul/2012 10:47:04): *****STOCK-ALERT***** :- Sell SBIN if breaks below 2140. Target 2080 & 2027. SL above 2173 (All Cash Levels)


>>>> TATA MOTORS<<<

Tata Motors - Above is the Eod chart of Tata Motors - I feel its an Irregular ABC on the given above Eod chart. If the stock able to break below 217 then it may test 170 level to complete wave C.

Break out works.

>>Click the Chart to see in on full Screen <<

Yesterday Count got Negated as surpassed above 5222.65. Upmove continues as Yesterday's break out form falling wedge.

Now I have marked the waves as a-b-c as I feel the ongoing wave as sw(b). As shown on chart tomorrow if there is a Break above 5259 can move up to 5280 & 5310 as its a retrace of 61.8 & 78.6% vice versa.

Else unable to move above 5259 means its a completion of sw(B) and may fall down - possibility of breaking down below 5169 for sw(c).

Lot of domestic news roaming around the corner like FDI Retail & GAAR - Continuous UP move of World market helping the Bulls to move Up.

Since tomorrow is week end and nearing the expiry for the current session - may witness some interesting twist. Cheers!!!

Break Out from Falling Wedge??

>>> Click the Chart to see it on Full Screen <<<

Nifty touched 5169.3 intraday Low - exactly the bottom of the Falling wedge and gave a break out from the falling wedge, touched intraday high of of 5222.65.

Now I mark this upmove or break out as sw(4) as it did not overlapped my count of sw(1) and also it retraced exactly 50% of sw(3).

Now todays high 5222.65 is very important, if breaks this high then count becomes invalid and upmove may continue.

Else may fall up to 5154 / 5133 and 5110 for sw(5).

Lets see. Cheers!!!

On the Support Line

>>> Click the Chart to See on full Screen <<<

Even though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted that there shall be a Possibility of further Economic Stimulus - that kept the Asian and European Market in Green followed by Dow Futures also. But Nifty refused to follow it.

Even though the day started with a gap up, Nifty unable to Hold the gain, as many as stocks like Tata Motors and TCS melted.

As the fall on Nifty looks like a Falling wedge Pattern, Now its important for the level 5160 to get broken on the downside as 200 Hr MA is 5183, a break below these levels will invite more selling Pressure.Above 5210 or a break above the falling wedge may give strength to Bulls, 5128 & 5060 act as an support as it is 38% & 50% retrace vice versa.

Cheers

Island Reversal ???

>>>Nifty<<<

>>> Click the Chart to see in full screen <<<

Nifty touched the important Suport of 5190, almost ready to enter the Gap left between 5160-5190. If there is a gap down tomorrow below 5160 it can be an Island Reversal which may be a confirmation of Bearish Reversal unless the Gap left is filled in short span of time.

See the Below Example of How Nifty will behave in case of a Gap down as Island Reversal

>>>Bank Nifty<<<

>>> Click the Chart to see in full screen <<<

As I wrote on Friday Bank Nifty gave a Bearish Break down - It seems Bank Nifty has completed Sw(b) or sw(2) and may fall below the trend line as marked on chart for sw(3) or (c).

A fall is confirmed Once the Trend line gets broken as on chart.

>>>Weekly Bank Nifty<<<

Attached is the Weekly Bank Nifty Chart. A Grave Stone Doji formed on the Upper Bank of the BB is a Sell Signal and so a fall can not be Ignored from current level.

Cheers!!!

Weekly Review

>>>> Click the thumbnail to see in full screen <<<<

Finally Nifty closed out of the raising wedge and registered its Bearishness on the week end. Weekly Candle suggest highly Negative outlook in coming days.

As shown on the chart, if Price able to brake below the gap left at 5160 then Nifty may continue to fall with heavy selling pressure.

As per count, I feel that Wave B is over and C has started already.

Many queries to me why Nifty is very choppy or sluggish trade these days. I feel this choppy was due to Bank Nifty which was trading in a Bullish manner so far. Last week Bank Nifty also gave a Bearish break down, so Bank Nifty may lead the fall along with Nifty in coming days. So I suggest my friend to be cautious on Banking stocks in particular.

Have a happy weekend - Cheers