Support @ 6487 / Resistance 6546 & 6562

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above given is a 30 mins.

>>> Asian Paints <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Long since 484. Look for 510 soon. Cheers!!!

Consolidation !!!

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Consolidation On.

>>> Bank Nifty - As Updated on Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote about Resistance Line.

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hit the Resistnce line with a Doji. Lets See.

Resistance @ 6560 & 6594

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

May be the end of sub wave iii with a resistance above 6594. Supports also given on chart.

>>> BIOCON <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We shorted @ 439 and holding still, Part profit advised to book @ 429. Since the channel broken down, may fall more.

Weekly Review :- 10.03.2014

Dear All,

Yes, Last week was Bull's Week. All my Counts and analysis becomes Invalid and Bull took total control.

We hit our Stop Loss on Nifty, Bank Nifty and Some stocks too.

So whats the news and how it happened. Lets see some Bad news followed by some Reversal news last week.

On March 01st had the following news as given below.

April-Jan fiscal deficit at $86 billion, crosses full year target (Please click the link below for details)

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-03-01/news/47799486_1_lakh-crore-fiscal-deficit-full-year-target

On March 05th news on fiscal deficit change the entire scenario as given below.

Q3 Current account deficit drops to 0.9 per cent, stands at lowest in 8 years (Please click the link below for details).

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-03-05/news/47933856_1_gold-imports-nri-deposits-services-imports

So How this happened and what magic happened in just 4-5 days on our economy. May be I'm missing some thing in this context. The readers who knows better on fundamental may drop email to me to niftyforall@yahoo.com if there is any justification in this regard.

One more thing I need clarifications.

On Jan and Feb 2014 RBI governor Raghuram Rajan has said that NPAs must be curbed before the problem becomes alarming.

Public sector banks (PSBs) have registered a massive increase in non-performing assets (NPAs). Gross NPAs of PSBs stood at Rs 112,489 crore in March 2012 rising to Rs 155,890 crore in March 2013 and all- time high of Rs 182,829 crore by June 2013. The Standing Committee on Finance is all set to examine the reasons for high NPAS in PSBs, including bigger banks like State Bank of India (SBI) and Punjab National Bank (PNB).

On Mar 5, 2014 Worried over a further rise in bad loans, especially among large companies, Finance Minister P Chidambaram exhorted PSU banks to effectively deal with non-performing assets (NPAs), their biggest challenge.

He said the efforts have yielded some results as PSU banks recovered Rs 18,933 crore of bad loans during the nine months through December 2013.

Bad loans of PSU banks rose 28.5 per cent to Rs 1.83 lakh crore in March 2013 over the preceding September.

Finally let us see what Analyst (S&P) said on 2014 about Indian Banking Sector.

2014 will remain challenging for Indian banks, say analysts (click the link below)

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-02-10/news/47200712_1_private-sector-banks-psu-banks-indian-banks

In Spite of all these (bad) news, the first upmove started from banking stocks.

So finally lets see what technical Says...

>>> NIFTY - Weekly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On Weekly Chart shows clear Break Out from the channel !!!.

>>> Nifty Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Earlier On several Weekly review - Have mentioned about the end of Wave B and wrote about the fall of Wave C of 2. Now after breaking 6358 all bear possibilities got truncated and a IHS like pattern also Break Out.

So its time to review the counts on bulls favor. Hence on Nov 03rd 2013 Wave 1 completed @ 6342 and Wave 2 Completed @ 5933 on Feb 04th 2014. Finally Wave 3 on the move. So Last week we saw a Speedy upmove as a result of Wave 3.

Lets See in details how the upmove may continue on Hourly Chart also.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Upmoving as Wave 3 with extension waves. Possible Resistance are 6530, 6594 and 6726. I hope this current upmove may last longer till 6726 with some correction and consolidation.

>>> Bank Nifty - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty - on Dec 09th 2013 made a high of 12226 was 78.6% retrace of Previous wave and hence referred as Wave B or 2. So thought the fall should be as abc or 1-5. Now if Bank Nifty can take the high of 12226 then the bear count should be invalid. Though I have given the above chart in favor of Bulls.

Possible resistances @ 12340, 12988 and 13814. Since now there are many doubts in this upmove, one should trade cautiously.

Possibilities such as A-B-C-D-E - may touch 13814 if trades above 12226. Lets See.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

11905 Resistance should be taken out for upmove. Above 12226 - overall upmove possible. Lets wait and see.

B(P)ull Back Rally ???

Bearish Hanging Man On Nifty - Trend Reversal ???

Dear All,

>>> Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Bearish Hanging man. Earlier we have wrote the same on Bank Nifty too, which failed. Now appears above the trend line. So its a warning signal, should wait and watch for reversal.


>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty crossed out resistance 10970, next resistance may be at the gap left above @ 11132 to 11190. Final hurdle @ 11248, cross may give bulls upper hand. All the above counts and analysis may invalid once cross these two resistance. So lets wait for clarity.

Crossed 6265. Next Resistance 6304 & 6330

Dear All,

Market rose sharply after Media reports said Tuesday that Russian troops sent on surprise military exercises that began last Wednesday, some of which are near the border of Ukraine, have been ordered to return to their bases by March 7. International observers had become nervous over the exercises in central and western Russia.

Markets will be watching closely for comments from Putin, and media reports say the Russian president will hold a press conference early Tuesday.

>>>Nifty<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty crossed 6265, filled gap and moving up. Now if the trend line resistance @ 6304 get crossed then may try to fill the gap left on the upperside 6330-40. Above 6340 bulls may take full control. Else if the resistance line unable to cross, may fall again.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty on gap filling process from 10750 to 10970. Still inside the wedge. If unable to cross 10970 may give next shorting opportunity. Lets See.

Caution Advised...

Dear All,

>>> Nifty - As Updated on Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Said before, its time for correction. See what happened.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Broken the Wedge, If able to hold below the trend line then free fall to continue.

>>> Bank Nifty - As Updated on Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote - 10750 crucial to hold, else to stay cautious.

>>>> Happened and Yet to <<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Broken the Wedge and hence likely to fall more.

>>> REC Ltd <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes we have short on REC Ltd and Part booked 10,000/-. More fall likely.

Weekly Review - 03.03.2014

Dear All,

Q3 GDP at 4.7%; economy heads towards worst year in decade :-

All signs pointed towards a lower GDP print, yet the finance minister bravely hinted that the remaining two quarters of the current fiscal could post a growth of 5.2%. Well he is wrong.

Numbers released by the government says that the country grew by only 4.7% in the third quarter lower than estimates of even pessimist economists who were expecting a growth of 4.9%.

Government started the year with an assumption of nearly 6.1% growth (budget estimates) but have subsequently reduced it blaming everyone else but its own policy paralysis.

Even a few days back in his pre-budget speech finance minister could not get the numbers right. He estimated the growth in economy to be around 4.9%, which given the 4.6% growth in the first half meant that the economy would have to grow at 5.2% in the second half. With a 4.7% in the third quarter the economy will have to grow by 5.7% in order to prove the finance minister right.

Earlier in the month IIP numbers were announced which posted a contraction of negative 0.6% for December 2013. With this the entire third quarter was a wash out with all three months in the quarter posting contractions. Worst there is little sign that there might be any improvement in the fourth quarter.

However, another set of data released by the government shows that maintaining the current growth rate would be difficult. India’s fiscal deficit in the first ten months of the 2013/14 financial year crossed the target for the whole year.

Finance minister had in his speech brought down the deficit target to 4.6% of GDP from 4.8% expected earlier. However, with the target (in absolute terms) already crossing the budgeted mark, it is unlikely that the government will be increasing its spending in the coming months.

Along with the expenditure it is likely that the finance minister will reduce his growth target one last time before the fiscal ends registering the decades slowest growth rate.

The Centre's fiscal deficit in the first ten months of the financial year stood at Rs 5,32,842 crore, breaching the Revised Estimate of Rs 5,24,539 crore, showed the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) today. At Rs 5,32,842 crore, the fiscal deficit is 101.6% of the RE, against 89.4% in the corresponding period of the last financial year. Fiscal deficit was retained at 4.9% last year.

If revenue collections don't grow at a much faster pace in the last two months, fiscal deficit as percentage of GDP may overshoot Finance Minister P Chidambaram's RE of 4.6% given in the interim Budget earlier this month. The government is pegging its hopes on the fourth and last installment of advance tax collections to be paid in March.

To rein in the deficit at the projected level, the finance minister may have to compress Plan expenditure further after it was slashed by about Rs 80,000 crore in RE. This may affect growth ahead of general elections in May-April.

Economists, however, said the fiscal deficit was unlikely to exceed the projection of 4.8% of GDP that had been made at the time of the Budget for 2013-14. In Budget for 2013-14 the government had proposed to bring down the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP or Rs 5.42 lakh crore.

The pick-up in the pace of tax growth in January 2014 is encouraging. However, based on the data for the first 10 months of the fiscal, excise and service tax collections appear likely to miss the revised targets for 2013-14. Net of the states' share in Central taxes, we expect the shortfall in the Central government's tax collections to be around Rs 10,000 crore," said Aditi Nayar, Senior Economist, ICRA.

As per the CGA data, the revenue deficit during April-January 2013-14 was Rs 3,78,850 crore or 102.3% of the RE. Revenue receipts during the period were Rs 7,21,905 crore or 70.1% of the RE. Total expenditure, on the other hand, was only 79.8% of the RE at Rs 5,90,434 crore.

For the next financial year, the deficit is pegged at 4.1% of GDP, one percentage point lower than targeted in a fiscal consolidation road map, even as the government cut excise duties to spur manufacturing, particularly production of consumer durable goods which fell for the 13th month in a row in December.

>>> Nifty - Weekly - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote last week to buy on every dips for a good upmove.

>>> Happened<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So as expected Nifty jumped 130+ Points from 6150. Hope enjoyed it.

>>>> Nifty - Daily - As updated last weekly review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week wrote about Price moved above 100dma and break out of Pitch fork, So the result is known to every one. So whats next ???

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes, one more break out needed for any more upmove next week. If not, then get ready for a correction. May be very deep. How far ??? Lets see it on hourly chart.

>>> Nifty - Hourly - As Updated Last week <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote last week clearly that 6265 as target. Happened as said, filled the gap and touched 6265. So lets see whats next.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So now, If price able to hold above 6265 may try to fill one more gap left at 6340 on the top again, Else get ready for a good or big fall. Yes I advice CAUTION from here onwards.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hanging man on daily chart, warning signal from bear and expect a trend reversal too. Stay caution.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Raising wedge if gets broken then get ready for a fall. Else if able to stay above 10750 the gap should be filled on the upper side. Lets See.

>>> Performance <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

Resistance 6265 - Caution advised

Dear All,

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony to the Senate on Thursday.

>>> NIFTY <<<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Gap filling process on nifty. 6265 if unable to cross then fall may resume. MACD not in favour of Price, should be watched carefully.

>>> BANK NIFTY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

10750 not crossing and negative divergence on MACD alarm caution.

Above 6195

Dear All,

>>> Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

6195 Crossed. Wedge like pattern if breaks - expect fall to start. Else 6265 should reach on the upper side.


>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Unable to hold 10750. If breaks the support given on chart, fall should resume again. Lets See.

6195 Key Resistance

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Nifty crossed the trend line and nearing 6195 as mentioned earlier. Now if unable to cross Resistance, may trigger sell off once again. Else may move up to 6265 to fill the gap left above.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank nifty also crossed the trend line and gave a break out. Now 10750 if able to cross then next level should be 10970 to fill the gap left above.

>>> CAN Bank <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Can Bank made a part profit of 5000. If able to cross the upper channel as shown on chart - good upmove pending.

Weekly Review - 24.02.2014

Dear All,

>>> Nifty - Weekly - As Updated Last weekly review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week said to Buy on dips for a corrective upmove. See what happened.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As wrote last week Nifty bounced back again. More upside left till 6265.

>>> Nifty - Daily - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Said Price may test 100 dma as it took support @ the Pitchfork middle line. See what happened

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As said Price tested 100dma and another break out looks like. Now ready for more upmove.

>>> Nifty - Hourly - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Said 61.8% fib lvl as a key support, if holds then may test 6095 and 6145. See what happened.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As said crossed both 6095 and 6145, Now ready to touch 6265 on the upper side. Lets See.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

10116 or 61.8% fib lvl as a good support, to test 10407 and 10644 last week. See what happened.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty almost made a high of 10630, achieved my both targets. Now watch the trend line across the chart along with 200 hma for next round of break out. If able to break then possible next levels shall be 10750 and 10970. Lets See.

>>> Axis Bank - As Updated on 17th Feb 2014 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> ICICI Bank <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Dish TV - As Updated on 19th Feb 2014 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> PERFORMANCE <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<