Weekly Review - 23.03.2015

Dear All,

Despite good news, the markets closed in the red for the second consecutive week and it looks like they are going through a reality check at the moment, analysts across brokerage firms say.

Early this month, the Reserve Bank of India surprised the Street with a rate cut, we witnessed the passage of the Insurance Bill and then we had the FOMC meeting outcome. But all failed to lift the markets.

The Indian markets are likely to remain volatile in the upcoming week as well ahead of the March month F&O expiry due on 26 March 2015. Analysts do not rule out further consolidation in the upcoming week.

If the index fails to decisively close above the 8600 level in the upcoming week, markets could see further decline up to levels of 8500 on the Nifty, and around 300 levels on the Sensex.

Meanwhile Indian Economy expected to clock a growth rate of 7.4 per cent in the current financial year, which is likely to improve further to 8.3 per cent by 2016-17, says an HSBC report.

According to HSBC, India's current account will be in surplus for the quarter ending March 2015 (after 32 consecutive quarters in deficit), and the deficit for the upcoming fiscal year will halve to 0.6 per cent of GDP from 1.1 per cent in the current fiscal year.

"If recovery and job creation are slow, the government could resort to fiscally irresponsible policies," HSBC said, adding that a rapid increase in commodity prices is a key risk and may "destabilise" the macro environment.

The global brokerage said the RBI would cut rates by another 25 bps by June, but cautioned that the space for more aggressive rate cuts is "constrained" by the RBI's explicit mandate to bring the inflation rate to the mid-point of the 4 per cent, +/-2 per cent band by early 2018.

The RBI is scheduled to announce its next bi-monthly policy statement on April 7.


>>> Weekly Chart - As Posted on Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full chart <<<

As per our last weekly review - RSI Broken the Trend line, Price need to confirm by breaking the trend line.

>>> Weekly Chart - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full chart <<<

So the Price continue to fall after RSI break down. Though Trend line looks important to confirm the bearish side.

>>> Nifty Daily - As Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full chart <<<

Wrote last week 8450 as a good support on Daily chart.

>>> Nifty Daily - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full chart <<<

Its a Clear Support @ 8450. Nothing to say more.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full chart <<<

Yes - Its a Irregular correction that usually occurs in an UpTrend. Hence 8450 Should be the Good Support for a Good Buy.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full chart <<<

Looks like a Head and Shoulder Break down. High possibilities of touching the second target @ 17880.

>>> DRREDDY - Posted as on 10th March, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full chart <<<

We gave a Sell call on DrReddy @ 3468. See what happened ?

>>> DRREDDY Hourly - As Posted on 16th March, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full chart <<<

Yes, We have booked Rs.21000 in our short given @ 3468.

>>> COLPAL - As Posted on 13th March, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full chart <<<

Gave a Sell on ColPal as on 10th March, 2015 @ 2105. See what Happened.

>>> COLPAL - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full chart <<<

Made a Profit Booking @ 2005 with a Part Profit of Rs.12500. We have shorted @ 2105. More fall likely.

>>> STAR - As Posted on 19th March, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full chart <<<

Yes We have shorted @ 1178 and wrote to Sell on every rise.

>>> STAR Hourly - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full chart <<<

Price Came almost near to the second Target also. More fall likely if breaks the support.


>>> Performance till 20th March, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full chart <<<

Send to us email to niftyforall@yahoo.com for getting our details of service.

Support 8590 If breaks, May Test 8450

Dear All,

The US central bank removed a reference to being "patient" on rates from its policy statement, opening the door wider for a hike in the next couple of months while sounding a cautious note on the health of the economic recovery. Given the developments, analysts feel that the US Federal Reserve could delay interest rate hike beyond June. Among the emerging markets (EMs), India is placed relatively better to weather the interest rate hike related storm, they say.

However Nifty fell down for second straight session and closed near support of 8,600.

Banking shares were under pressure, falling by upto 4% in late afternoon trade and erasing their entire morning gains.

"This fall in index has completely engulfed the rebound of last three sessions, which indicates further fall in the coming sessions. And, we are still upholding our downside target of 8475 in Nifty. Considering the market volatility, traders should maintain extra caution and avoid overleveraging at current levels. Among the sectors indices, PSU banking looks weakest, followed by energy, realty and metal so one can consider stocks from these pivots for fresh shorts," said Jayant Manglik, President-retail distribution, Religare Securities.

>>> Nifty Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

It was an unexpected Sell off in the afternoon trade. Nifty ended in deep red. Now 8613 and 8590 looks very important, if breaks, then fall to continue till 8450 also.

We are advising a Long call on nifty till Yesterday - We had a lot of break out on chart, both on Price and RSI front, Suddenly market fell down even after a positive Fed decision. Hence let us see what and where it went wrong technically.

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

A false break out for sub wave (4) as a-b-c, today both price and RSI changed direction towards a negative side. If all the given support level breaks then fall to continue on weekend day of friday.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

18680 Support must hold for an U turn, Else if breaks, Fall to continue as mentioned on chart.

>>> STAR <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

STAR in its final Leg of rally completed today @ 1198 as 1-5 Wave upmove rally as given on chart. A Doji reveals a cautious tone. If 1198 - Unable to cross above, Get ready for a Free fall. Just Sell Sell and Sell Only.

Sell Copper @ 360. SL above 384. Target 300 ??

Dear All,

>>> COPPER - DAILY CHART <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Now Sell Copper @ 360 and also Sell on Every Rise with a SL of 384. Target as given on chart. Happy Selling. Cheers!!!

Support @ 8613 & 8592

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Great Start on the monring, Price move up, Later - Price unable to hold. Previous such move shows 50 Hour Moving Average should be crossed for a continuous pull back. So lets wait for it.

>>> SBIN <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price comfortably moving above from the channel support. RSI should confirm the trend. Expect a good rally. Cheers!!!

Worst is Over ??? Get Ready for Rally !!!

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly - As Posted Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yesterday wrote clearly - 8613 and 8590 as a clear support. See what happened.

>>> Nifty Hourly - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Clear Break out on RSI. If Price can able to hold above 50 HMA - then Short Covering and Fresh Rally on Card. Just Buy.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly - As Posted Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

It was a clear message from Bulls Yesterday - See what happened ?

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Clear break out form Wedge and RSI. Price above 50 HMA. Nothing more to say. Get REady for a Rally. Cheers!!!

Support @ 8612 & 8592

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Channel Support if Holds, Expect a recovery. 8612 or 8590 Act as a good support.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Looks like an Expanding Triangle. RSI on Clear Break Out. So all together - Get ready if the wedge breaks out on Price, Short Covering and Rally.

>>> DRREDDY - As Posted on 10th March, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on 10th march to Sell DrReddy. See what happened ?

>>> DRREDDY - Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We shorted @ 3468 and today made a low of 3301. Profit so far Rs.21000.

>>> COLPAL - As Posted on Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on weekly review - Stock completed its rally as 1-5. See what happened ?

>>> COLPAL - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Made a Small Profit of Rs.8750 or 70 Points fall from 2105. Expect more fall. Sell on rise. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review 16.03.2015

Dear All,

The raising consumer inflation raised concern about Next Rate Cut and sudden increase in Bond Yield - made the market nervous.

A raising bond yield doesn't sound good for a Rate Cut and reacted on a negative side for Bank Nifty to slide.

The SENSEX has already slipped as much as 1521 points from its record high of 30024.74 hit earlier in the month of March. Pressure on rupee, concerns over key bills and sooner-than-expected interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve made investors cautious.

The sharp correction this week was primarily due to global risk-off trade, triggered by fear the US Federal Reserve would advance an interest rate increase. The panic led to sell-off in emerging markets and risky assets, as well as a surge in the dollar. Fund tracking firm EPFR pegged outflows in Asia emerging market funds at $2.4 billion.

Foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows from the Indian market were muted. FIIs bought shares worth Rs 67 crore, while their domestic counterparts sold shares worth an equal amount, according to provisional exchange data.

Analysts say the market has come under pressure due to weak corporate earnings and lack of near-term triggers in the Union Budget.

Analysts say most positive reports have been priced in, as Indian markets are trading at about 10 per cent above their long-term valuations. The Sensex is trading at 17 times its one-year forward earnings estimate.

Meanwhile Overseas investors have pumped in nearly Rs 14,000 crore into the Indian capital markets within a fortnight of this month, taking the total inflow to around Rs 72,000 crore since the beginning of the year.

The analysts expect the inflows to accelerate further going ahead following the passage of the Insurance Bill in Parliament and assurances in the Union Budget to revisit controversial issues like General Anti-Avoidance Rule (GAAR).

The latest inflow takes the foreign investments in the country's capital markets (equity and debt segments) to Rs 71,958 crore ($11.63 billion) so far this year

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

RSI made a Break down. Price needs to break below the trend line for a bearish confirmation. 15 Week Moving Average should be watched as usual.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Immediate support @ 8590, If breaks then 8468 or 8450 should be the next Support.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

8590 Looks important for Bulls. If 8590 Breaks Price may fall till 8468 or 8450. Else there can be a bounce as relief rally.

At the same time, there are chances for Nifty to move till 8290 on the downside as a-b-c to fill a gap left as shown on chart. As expected if there is any relief rally - it must be used for exiting Longs or Selling at higher level.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On 04th March we had a short on bank Nifty @ 20,000 - 20300 Level. Now the Price almost near the final Target 18500. Almost a 1500 Points Profit.

Above chart looks like a Head and shoulder, If this is not wrong, Just imagine what shall be the next ?.

Trend Line and 100 Day Moving Average should rescue the Bulls now. Else Disaster to continue.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

FAN on the chart clearly reveals how the price resisted at every time and breaks the support to fall every time. If the Price doesn't holds the bottom most fan, fall to continue.

Bank Nifty has given to us almost 2500 Points Profit on last 2 calls.

>>> STOCK PERFORMANCE of the Week <<<

>>> DRREDDY Daily Chart - As Posted on 10th March, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on 10th March, 2015 to Sell DrReddy. See what happened.

>>> DRREDDY - Hourly Chart - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Break below the trend line may trigger a free fall. We had a Part Booking for Rs.12500. More fall likely. Sell on every rise.

>>> COLPAL <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are in short from 2110 onwards. Price completed its 1-5 Rally. Expecting a fall form here. Sell on ever rise.

>>> Rcom - As Posted on 12th March, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Continue to hold Rcom. Break out on Both Price and RSI. Rally coming soon.

>>> EXIDEIND <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After completing the rally as 1-5 wave, Price broken the channel and confirmed the bearish side. As shown on chart - A Throw Back on Price - Giving a Selling Opportunity. Just Sell on Rise.

>>> PERFORMANCE till 13th March, 2015 <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

For details of Service - send email to niftyforall@yahoo.com

Above 8781, See 8845 & 8897

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly - As Posted Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote Yesterday - for a possible rally with a support at 8677, mentioned to test the three resistance given above on chart. See what happened ?

>>> Nifty Hourly - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

First Target Done. Cross above 8781 may see next two resistance like 8845 & 8898.

>>> Rcom <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Break Out and Break Out - We are Long. Just Buy buy and Buy. Cheers!!!

Support 8677 - Holding.

Dear All,

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Support holding at 8766. Though the above counting not looking clear as the 5th leg looks extensive and longer than 3rd one. Since RSI and 8677 keep holding, bounce looks promising.

Just a Relief Rally - Resistance 8744, 8785 & 8818

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly - As Posted Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote Yesterday - More downside possible. Lets see whats next ?

>>> Nifty Hourly - Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Current fall looks like 1-5. Hence the 3 wave completed near 8680 and a corrective upmove should happen as a relief rally. Now 8744,8785 and 8818 may act as a resistance. So the pattern looks still as a sell on rise.

>>> DRREDDY <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Just Sell on Every Rise. More fall Likely. Cheers!!!