NiftyforAll

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Weekly Review - 14.12.2015

Dear All,

Investors will keenly watch the decision of US Federal Reserve’s two-day monetary policy meeting scheduled on starting on Tuesday.

The market will also react to the industrial production (IIP) data for October, which was announced post-market hours on Friday.

The government will unveil the data on Wholesale Price Index for November on Monday. Post market hours, Consumer Price Index for November will also be announced on Monday. Stock market trend will also largely depend on developments over the GST Bill, movement of the rupee, crude oil price movement and investment by foreign portfolio investors.

Investors’ sentiments were dampened over a possible delay in the passage of the key GST Bill. Further, oil prices tumbled to their lowest since 2009 after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to keep production high despite depressed demand.

Further, foreign portfolio investors sold approximately Rs 1,000 crore worth shares during the week. On Friday, the rupee ended with a 17 paise loss at 66.88 against the US dollar, the lowest level in more than two years in the face of a strong demand for greenback.

On Friday, Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan said there was a high probability of the Fed increasing the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 per cent next week. "Looking at the market probabilities, our sense is there is 70-75 per cent probability of a Fed increase. I also think Fed has prepared the way carefully for rate increase so it is likely at this point they will go ahead and raise rates," he told reporters after a meeting of Central Board of the RBI.

The recent fall in these stocks to relentless selling by foreign institutional investors with high levels of holdings. FIIs continued their selling spree and pulled out more than Rs 2,300 crore from the domestic stock market in the first week of December after Fed chair Janet Yellen hinted at a rate hike.The Fed did play a major role in the current market fall, and there is worldwide weakness in equities. To be honest, a lot of FII money is going out of India and other emerging market.

It looks like markets have already factored in a rate hike. This is evident from the constant selling witnessed in equity markets not just in India, but across the globe. While financial markets globally look more prepared for a rate hike in the US, the main worry is about how things pan out beyond the first rate hike. Some experts think the pace of rate increase will be shallow and the quantum of hike would not be more than 60 bps in next 12 months.

The US Fed will do the first round of rate increase this December, which is already known and presumably digested in stock prices. The bigger issue is after that what? What kind of commentary will the Fed give along with the first rate increase? "If the commentary is dovish, it should be looked at as time-bound increase in rates. So far the indications and consensus are factoring in a gradual increase in rates over a period, and that too based on data"

Apart from above, lets move on to technical's.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

7590 if Holds, Possible Bounce back.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

Important Support 7590 should hold for a good bounce back next week. Break below may test 7540.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

16250 or 16190 if holds, expect a bounce.

>>> Performance till 11th Dec, 2015 <<<

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>>> New Year Offer 2016 <<<

Stay connected with us till Dec 31st, 2016, Get our unlimited service through out the Year 2016. Cheers!!!

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Resistance @ 7714

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

Key Resistance @ 7714.

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Support @ 7590 & 7540 - If Congress Support GST ?!?!?

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

Next Support 7590 and 7540 - If Congress Support GST.

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Broken Support - More Sell Off ???

Dear All,

Market saw a late hour Sell Off. Usually when a ruling party got stuck with a "SCAM" market react on a bearish tone.
But now when the apposition party was summoned by a Delhi Court to appear both mother and son on a National Herald Case, Market reacted on a Bearish tone, As the Opposition Party's Support needed for passing a crucial GST Bill on Rajya Sabha.

Here are some key facts about the National Herald case, which has placed the Gandhis squarely in the eye of a storm:
-The National Herald was a newspaper that India's first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru helped set in pre-Independence India in the year 1938. It was part of a company called Associated Journals Limited, which was funded by the Congress. An article in Mint quotes a biographer of Nehru as saying that he found himself being unable to make an impact on the 'reactionary tendencies' in the Congress, after which the National Herald was started. However, as the article pointed out, it faced financial difficulties throughout its existence. The newspaper officially closed down in April 2008.
-According to the Enforcement Directorate (ED), a private non-profit company 'Young Indian' was formed in March 2011, with Sonia and Rahul holding 38 percent of the shares each, allegedly with the specific aim of taking over the liabilities of AJL. In 2012, BJP leader Subramanian Swamy filed a complaint before a court. Swamy accused Congress leaders of being involved in cheating through the acquisition of AJL by Young Indian Pvt Ltd. He alleged that YIL paid merely Rs 50 lakh to recover an amount of Rs 90.25 crore that AJL owed to the Congress. As Sanjay Singh of Firstpost points out, going by the current value of the properties of National Herald, the scam could be to the tune of anywhere between Rs 1,600 crore and Rs 5,000 crore.

The Delhi High Court has now rejected the plea filed by the Gandhis challenging the summons, which means that they will have to appear before the court unless the order is set aside. As of now, a Delhi court has asked them to appear on 19 December and exempted them from personal appearances on 8 December.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

Broken the Support 7730 and 7710. We hit the Stop Loss on Nifty and Exited long. Above chart shows and Break down from Head and Shoulder. Moving averages also trying for a bearish cross over.

>>> LT - SL hit. Exited with Loss <<<

Have marked the Fall on LT as Wave C, which did not find its support. Broken 1322 or 161.8% of Wave A. Hit SL and Exited with Loss.

>>> SBIN - Hit SL and Exited with Loss <<<

We hit one more Stop Loss today and We exited our Long also.

>>> AXIS BANK - Hold <<<

Axis Bank - Still on Hold until breaks the support line. Break out on chart still looks to be alive. Lets see.

Monday, December 07, 2015

Last Hope 7730 & 7710

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

Last hope 7730 and 7710 as shown here - Neck line on the chart. Cheeers!!!

Saturday, December 05, 2015

Weekly Review - 07.12.2015

Dear All,

While a slide in the dollar following a less-than-expected stimulus by the European Central Bank (ECB) spelt some relief to Asian currencies, the rupee hit a fresh two-year low and was staring at the 67 mark on Friday.

The ECB played spoilsport on Thursday by announcing a less-than-expected stimulus for the slowing economy of the region. The move triggered selling across equity markets globally. However, the euro and different Asian currencies, barring the rupee, were trading firm against the US dollar on hope that a rise in the euro will put a halt to the dollar rally, at least for the time being.

Analysts said there might have been winding up of carry trade between the rupee and the euro, which may have been weighing on the domestic currency.

RBI's liquidity infusion

The Reserve Bank of India will conduct bond purchases of up to Rs 10,000 crore via open market operations (OMO) on Monday. The central bank will also conduct a 28-day variable term repo for Rs 25,000 crore to inject funds into the banking system. Rating agency India Ratings in a note said, "RBI's decision to infuse liquidity via both term repo and open market operations (OMO) routes will have a salutary and sentiment impact on money market rates as well as bond yields."

"Theoretically, RBI's intention to open the OMO window to infuse rupee liquidity may be negative for the rupee. However, losses in the rupee may be contained to a large extent by exporters' dollar sales and positional unwinding of the dollar as we near the December 15-16 FOMC meeting," the rating agency added.

Impending Fed rate hike :

The real culprit behind the recent slide in the rupee and other currencies globally is the impending Fed rate hike. Fed chair Janet Yellen on Thursday warned that waiting too long to wind up the near-zero interest rate regime could propel the central bank to tighten too quickly. It is most likely that the US fed will raise interest rates in December 15-16 policy.

CEA panel for removing tax on inter-state trade

A panel headed by Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian has recommended the one per cent tax proposed to be levied on the goods and services tax (GST) on inter-state trade of goods to help manufacturing states be done away with. This is one of the major demands of the Congress and the recommendation could help the government break the GST gridlock in Parliament.

In a report to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Friday, the committee recommended the main or standard GST rate be in the range of 16.9-18.9 per cent. It prefers it to be between 16.9 per cent and 17.7 per cent. The standard rate will apply to most goods and services in the new indirect tax regime. These rates were calculated by excluding real estate, electricity, alcohol and petroleum products.

The report comes at a time when uncertainty over the fate of the GST Bill persists despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself having sought to break the ice with the Congress, which has made three key demands for lending its support for the indirect tax reform including removal of the 1% extra tax and including the GST rate in the Constitution itself.

While the removal of the 1% tax or cutting its life from three years mentioned earlier is under the government’s active consideration, it is unlikely to specify the GST rate in the Constitution. With 100% compensation for states for the first five years of GST for any revenue loss likely, the rationale for the 1% additional tax no longer existed, officials said.

But some sources said the Congress was still undecided on to what extent it can compromise on its demands. The party’s support is essential for the passage of the Bill in the Rajya Sabha where the ruling alliance is in a minority.

Experts said that if petroleum, real estate and liquor are kept out of GST in the initial years as proposed in the Bill passed in the Lok Sabha earlier this year, the available tax base would shrink and, hence, the combined Centre-state GST rate could be more than 20%.

Government sources said in such a scenario, the attempt would be to eventually bring down the rate as the tax base expands. A select panel of Rajya Sabha which reviewed the Constitutional Bill had suggested that the rate should not exceed 20%. Finance minister Arun Jaitley too promised that the GST rate would be much lower than the previously discussed 27%.

The Modi government will have to get manufacturing states, especially Gujarat, to accept the proposal not to have the 1% tax. Gujarat, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu have been the most vocal about having an origin-based tax on interstate sale of goods, saying that they have attracted industrial units by investing heavily on infrastructure.

At present, Congress party leaders and former Cabinet ministers P Chidambaram, Anand Sharma and Jairam Ramesh are examining the government’s response to their demands.

The opposition party also wants a dispute resolution mechanism within the GST Council, but the view taken by the government during the UPA regime and accepted by the current leadership is that dispute resolution, which has a bearing on the essential legislative powers of the Parliament and state assemblies, cannot be subject to other structures. At best such structures can be recommendatory in nature, not statutory.

The Congress also wants inclusion of petroleum products within GST starting from the initial years, but the select panel of the Rajya Sabha did not accept the recommendation, leaving it to the proposed GST Council.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

Almost a Head and Shoulder on daily Chart. If breaks - Fall to continue.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

7770-80 if holds, Expect a good bounce as shown on chart. Our EW counts also suggest the same. But if breaks then, the counts may be invalid and fall to continue.

>>> Bank Hourly Chart <<<

Bullish Cross over is still ON. If the current fall is for Wave X, Expect a bounce back soon - next week.

>>> AXISBANK - Hourly - Follow Up - Hold Long <<<

Holding our Long on Axis Bank. Above chart suggest, Price to rally if breaks above the trend line. RSI already on a break out.

>>> SBIN - Hourly - Expect Rally <<<

Watch the Trend line support to hold, for a rally.

>>> New Year Scheme - 2015 <<<

Please send your queries regarding our service and New Year Plan 2016 to niftyforall@yahoo.con or whatsapp @ 9677924975

Thursday, December 03, 2015

More Event - More Volatile - Support @ 7850 & 7820

Dear All,

>>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<<

Its a complicated correction and the counts may not appear genuine due to complicated in nature. Earlier today we hit a 20 point stop loss in our long, which violated our count. Hence the above count was modified, which differed from my earlier counts. More Events like ECB / FED / CBDT & China Factor's - initiated heavy volatile. Must stay cautious on either side to protect our capital.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

Earlier - Mentioned 17480 as a Resistance - which failed to cross. Now if the Trend line Supports, expect bounce again. Cheers!!!

Wednesday, December 02, 2015

Support @ 7910 & 7904

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

Unable to hold above 7960 for many days. Sudden sell off in Nifty today till 7910, shows the strength of volatile. Lets wait for more clarity.

Tuesday, December 01, 2015

7960 Still Resisting - Wait for a Break Out.

Dear All,

>>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<<

Wait patiently for a Cross Above 7960.

>>> ADANI PORT <<<

Support taken at previous low, if holds, Expect a good bounce. Else fall to continue. Cheers!!!

Monday, November 30, 2015

7960 - Get Ready for a Rally till 8022-24

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

Nifty Hourly - Shows a clear Bullish Cross Over, So expect Price to cross any time above 7960 for a good rally.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

Bank Nifty Resisted @ 17480, Cross above may rally till 17720. Cheers!!!

Saturday, November 28, 2015

Weekly Review - 30.11.2015

Dear All,

Key Events to decide the trend next week.

1) RBI Meet 2) GDP Data & 3) GST Bill.

1) The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will go for its fifth bimonthly monetary policy review on Tuesday, December 1. Most analysts expect it to be a non-event, and say the central bank would maintain status quo ahead of the crucial US Federal Reserve meeting mid-December.

2) In macroeconomic data, market participants would watch India's gross domestic product (GDP) data for the September quarter, which will be released on Monday, November 30, 2015.

According to a Reuters poll of 45 economists, economic growth accelerated to 7.3 per cent in the September quarter. The range of forecasts for gross domestic product growth for the latest quarter was between 6.9 per cent and 7.6 per cent, with the median at 7.3 per cent.

3) Investors are hopeful that GST will see the light of the day during the winter session of Parliament as the government is showing its willingness to negotiate

>> International Events <<<

Investors would keep a close vigil on the forthcoming monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank on December 3.It is widely expected that the European Central Bank would expand its stimulus programme to provide further support and aid the recovery in the euro area.

In mid-December (i.e. on 15th-16th), the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet to decide on interest rates, The minutes of the October Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a likely rate hike in December. This reflected confidence in the US economy to sustain a rate hike. A rate hike decision by the US Federal Reserve will provide key triggers for the market.

The movement in the china markets is set to dictate the trend on the bourses after the shares cracked nearly 6% on Friday as the regulator banned some brokerages for infringement of trading rules. Meanwhile, China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data will be released on Monday, 30 November.

Lets See the Technical's ...

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart - Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

As posted on Last Weekly Review - Weekly Chart gets support from 100 WMA - Wrote to Stay Long.

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart - Happened <<<

Almost made a high of 7960. Expect more rally above 7960.

>>> Nifty Daily - Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

As posted on last weekly review - If 7710 holds, expect a rally. See what happened.

>>> Nifty Daily - Happened <<<

As expected Price started Moving up. Expect rally.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

Price halted near 7960 or 38.2% retrace, cross above may trigger next rally till 8030 or near. We had a long position from 7830, advised to book some profit near 7960.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

Trigger from RBI Next week to run the Bank Nifty. Chart Suggest a rally till 100 DMA - As price closed above 50DMA Last Week.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

Bullish Cross Over - refers - More rally on card. Above 17480 - More rally possible as mentioned on Daily Chart.

>>> Apollo Tyre - Posted on 16th Nov, 2015 <<<