Weekly Review - 13th June, 2016

Dear All,

Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of key macro economic data and the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meet. Meanwhile, worries that Britain, in a referendum on June 23, may vote not to be a part of the European Union would continue to weigh on sentiment.

The Reserve Bank of India at its bi-monthly policy review early this week kept key policy rates unchanged amid inflation concerns but maintained an 'accomodative' monetary policy stance going forward. The repo or the repurchase rate was unchanged at 6.50% on the back of higher food inflation and amid expectations of a rate action by the US Federal Reserve. The central bank has also kept the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) unchanged at 4%.

Meanwhile, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for April was weaker-than-expected after it contracted to -0.8% as compared to 0.1% in March 2016 with manufacturing sector contracting to -3.1% compared to -1.2% in the previous month.

Outlook

Apart from the global events such as the US Fed meet, macro economic data such as the wholesale price index and consumer price index for May 2016 along with the progress of the monsoon will dictate market trend.

Investors will also be keenly awaiting the commentary from the US Fed at the conclusion of its two-day policy meet which ends on Wednesday, June 15.

Further, announcements by the Indian Meteorological Department regarding the progress of monsson will also be in focus.



>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

An Inverted Hammer formed near the Key Resistance Zone - Should really be a cause to concern for Bulls. One should take care of their longs. A flow of bad news from any side may trigger fresh sell off from all front. Above 8290 Bulls may try to roar again.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price unable to cross above the Channel and Hold above 8268 - Signals Bearishness. We have short Position and looking for a Good Correction.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hourly chart suggest - end of wave 3 or C. Hence a possible correction till 8075 or near 8006. We have short position from 8235 and holding for a good correction.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Looks like bank Nifty end its rally near 18050 and started falling. Below 17800 may test 17650 or even 17410 soon.

>>> Maruti - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Maruti - We are short from 4150 and holding for a good correction. Price if breaks the trend line or 4100 - More fall likely.

>>> N4A <<<

Send Your Queries about our service to niftyforall@yahoo.com

Support 8200 & 8156

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

8200 a Good Support, Break below may test 8156 as per above chart.

>>> Nifty Bank Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Broken the Wedge and RSI - shows a Caution sign from Bear again. Lets wait for more confirmation. Cheers!!!

Above 8290 - Upmove to Resume

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Its a Day of consolidation again. Price formed a Triangle, must break out of it for next move.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

18000 as Hurdle. Break above may give more rally. Lets wait and watch. cheers!!!

Resistance @ 8290 & 8320

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price continue the upward journey, after RBI Policy. Next Resistance to watch 8290,8320 and 8350. Cross above these levels may give fresh rally again.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price resisted near 18000, Cross above may test 18150+ and more. Cheers!!!

8180 & 8130 Crucial Support.

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Await for Twist and Turn from the most important personalities - Yellen & Rajan. Any Surprise or Un Expected words from these people's mouth may trigger a Big move on either side of the Market world wide. Chart looks like some warning sign from Bear. Lets wait and see.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

RSI on a Negative Div, makes a cautious view on BN. Lets wait for Actions @ RBI's Day. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review - 06th June, 2016

Dear All,

Volatile - Is not an End :-

Volatility refers to the upward and downward movement of price. The more prices fluctuate, the more volatile the market is, and vice versa.

The volatility in stock markets is one of the principle reasons why private investors sell out at the wrong time and often fail to benefit from the natural appreciation in stock markets over time.

If you are to save and invest through the stock markets you must accept that volatility in markets is normal, and an understanding of why markets tend to be so volatile can alleviate many of the fears that you might experience when markets enter a volatile phase.

After all, volatility is not the same thing as risk, and if you succumb to volatility by selling out under pressure you may take a permanent loss when all you were experiencing was a temporary decline in values.

The principle causes of volatility are :-

The economy is volatile and experiences periods of contraction as well as expansion.

A contraction in the economy leads to lower revenues for businesses, and with fixed overheads this, in turn, amplifies the reduction in corporate earnings.

Furthermore, stock markets are emotional and over-react relative to the likely change in these underlying business fundamentals.

What Causes Short Term Volatility?

Perceptions and emotions move individual stock prices and the overall market in the near term. If investors feel that good times are ahead for the economy and/or an individual company, the prices of those securities will probably go up until that perception changes. Investors’ perceptions and emotions are heavily influenced by news events. So when the government reports one day that unemployment is dropping, the market could do quite well that day.

But if another report is released the very next day bemoaning the price of energy or an increase in inflation, the market might get spooked and decline. Just as there are quite a few news stories that are released throughout the day there many different forces at work which move the market and stock prices at any given time.

Nobody knows exactly which news item moves the market in any particular day but investors definitely fall victim to the herd mentality. Once a few big players react strongly to a story, everyone piles on. So if something happens that makes people think or feel differently about the market as a whole or an individual company, the prices in question can really move over the short run.

How to Reduce the Affects of Stock Market Volatility

1. Employ Fundamental Value Analysis

The kind of stock market volatility you really want to avoid is downside volatility. All major market tops coincide with high valuations. This makes fundamental value strategies an important part of investing. These tools can guide you away from over priced investments that are prevalent at market tops.

2. Have a Maximum Drawdown Plan

Have a maximum drawdown policy as a part of your risk management plan. A large part of your asset allocation strategy should be based on how you will manage and minimize a portfolio drawdown. It is large portfolio drawdowns that destroy your long term returns.

3. Use a Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy

A fixed or strategic asset allocation makes little sense because we know valuation is the biggest determinant of your long term investment returns. Once you are empowered with the knowledge from fundamental value analysis and have mapped out your risk management plan you can choose an appropriate asset allocation.
With a tactical asset allocation you have the flexibility to make allocation decisions that are based on maximizing your probability of positive outcomes. That means having ability to allocate more aggressively to under valued assets and avoid assets that do not provide a margin of safety.


>>> Nifty Weekly - Posted Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week wrote - Price above 8200 - may test 8250 - an important Resistance as per Weekly Chart.

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart - Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Tested 8250. Bulls must cross above this level to confirm its strength.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wave C retraced almost 61.8% of wave A. Above 8268 - Cross above this levels - More rally possible.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price must cross channel and 61.8% of retrace to confirm the strength of the bull.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Seems like a 1-5 sub wave completed and channel acts as a resistance.

For service queries - send you email to niftyforall@yahoo.com

Next 8250 or 8268

Dear All,

>>> Nifty 5 Min Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

It was a choppy and volatile ride in nifty for last 4 trading days. So above chart may give your some clarity about whey and how the price moving.
Have tried mark and hope its not wrong. Price moving for the last 5 wave - shows it may possible consolidate before completing for 5th wave. Watch out for 5250 or 5268 to cross and hold.

>>> Bank Nifty 5 Mins Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty 5 mins - same like nifty - consolidating for last 4 days. As per above analysis, it seems like price may consolidate further for last leg of upmove. Lets wait. Cheers!!!

8200 - Still Resisting

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

RSI and Price - Getting Resisted @ the channel. Need more confirmation for any further decision.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty resisted @ 17620 and continue to fall. If unable to cross above again - trigger some more correction. Lets wait and see. Cheers!!!

Channel Resistance @ 8200 & 8250 Must give Way for Bulls

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Channel acting as a Hurdle for bulls. Must cross above for a fresh rally.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

More rally only above the channel top or 17620. Lets wait and See. Cheers!!!

Resistance @ 8200 & 8250

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price must hold above the Channel to continue the rally, must watch 8200 & 8250.


>>> MARUTI - Daily Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We entered short near 4150. Price almost corrected today till 4054, Expecting such correction to continue. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review - 30th May, 2016

Dear All,

>>> VALUE OF PATIENCE <<<

Patience - The word give lot of meaning and importance in stock market. If You don't have this Meaningful word Patience with you, then all your skills in stock market becomes Useless.

Dennis Gartman, a successful trader and publisher of The Gartman Letter has this to say about the value of patience: "Proper patience is needed throughout the lifecycle of the trade, at entry, while holding and exit."

A Well know - Experienced Trader or Investor - with lot of Fundamental or Technical Knowledge - may continue to make loss or Miss his Profit - due to his impatience.

There are several reasons for this, but the big one is simple. Most investors are not long-term buy-and-holders. They lack the patience and require the thrill of something more. Either they are convinced of their ability to time the market, which usually leads to dismal returns, or they are emotional pendulums, buying at the top and selling out at the bottom of markets, which always leads to dismal returns.

>> Even a Short Term Swing Trader Need Patience <<<

Shorter term swing traders still have to develop the skills of patience. You may have bought into a stock that has started to trade sideways over a period of a week. It is not making you any money whilst consolidating so you decide to cut and run, only to then witness the stock start to move up nicely over the coming weeks. This type of behaviour is common as swing traders panic out of positions they are in when these are doing nothing. In fact, swing traders can panic out of trades even when they are running well! For instance, you buy a stock and within two days it has moved up by 5%. The temptation to grab those profits will be very high, even though there is no logical reason from looking at the charts to realize your gains.

>>> Patience to be in two forms <<<

Patience comes in two forms; the patience to stay in trades that you are already in, but also the patience not to take up new positions when your entry criteria aren’t fully met. Have you ever taken new trades because you simply wanted to be ‘in’ trades? Having the patience to not trade is just as important as having the patience once you are already in.

So Friends, Learn to live with Patience and Earn Every day. Good Luck.

>>> Nifty Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price took a clear support from the trend line - and zoomed. Now the Key Resistance @ 8240-50 - a Major Hurdle for Bulls.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After Getting Support @ channel Support @ 7715 - Bulls reacted heavily and zoomed above 7990 - Major Hurdle. We are long from 7815, Booked Profit @ 8050.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hourly Chart - Had a Different Story to Say. Price Resisted @ Channel Top, shows - a Possible Correction.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Its a Break Out Story again in Bank Nifty also. Above 17495 More rally till 18000+.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Earlier this We have booked 500 Points Profit near 17150. As per above chart, Price tested the first Channel and if crosses above may test the next upper channel near 18000+.

>>> SBIN - Profit Booked Rs.20,000/- <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Earlier we have booked Rs.20k from our long position.

>>> LICHSGFIN - Booked Profit Rs.11000/- <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Also Booked Profit in LICHSGFIN Rs.11,000/-

>>> UNION BANK - Booked Profit Rs.15000/- <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Booked Profit Rs.15000/-

>>> Performance till 27th May, 2016 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Kindly send email to niftyforall@yahoo.com for details of our service.

Next Resistance @ 8150 & 8250

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price finally broken above 7990. We have long from 7815 Average (7890 & 7740) - Booked today @ 8050 with a Profit of Rs.36000/-.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty also booked our Long @ 17150, Bot @ 16640 - almost 500 Points Profit. Price closed above 17030 - may face resistance @ 17350 and 17622.

>>> LICHSGFIN - Profit Booked @ Rs.11000/- <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We have booked our long in LICHSGFIN with 10 Points or Rs.11000/-. Stock shows more momentum, if crosses above the channel - may move further as shown on above chart.

>>> UNIONBANK - Hourly - Holding Long <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Union Bank - Hourly Shows and Falling Wedge Break Out. We are holding long and holding for a good upmove from here. Cheers!!!

Watch 7940 & 7990

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

It was a dazzling rally today. We are long with an average of 7815. Price today made a clear break out as shown on chart. Hence more rally waiting on card.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

A Clear Break out on Bank Nifty also. We are long since 16640 and waiting for more rally.

>>> SBIN - Posted Yesterday <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yesterday said - Price may break out from the wedge.

>>> SBIN - Booked Profit <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Booked Profit @ 176. Price above 50 HMA - Shows more rally possible. Cheers!!!