Weekly Review - 21st Nov, 2016

Dear All,

The worries about the impact of demonetization on the economy and consequently on the stock market continued to plague the market. However, consensus believes the long-term gains will even out the short-term pains.

A shock move by the Indian government to withdraw over 80% of the country’s currency in circulation has sparked a rally in bonds that could extend into late December as markets bet on a rate cut as soon as next month.

Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the sudden removal of Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes on 8 November to crack down on corruption and forgeries, banks have been awash in liquidity as households rushed to tender their old bills—putting the brakes on a cash-reliant economy.

The near term hit to the economy has fed expectations of a rate cut in December, helping stoke the rally in Indian debt even as global bonds crumbled in the wake of Republican Donald Trump’s upset US presidential election win.

Macroeconomic data: Softening food prices helped ease retail as well as wholesale inflation in October, raising hopes that RBI may go in for another rate cut in its monetary policy review next month.

Retail or CPI inflation dipped to 14 month low of 4.20% in October, while the one based on wholesale prices or WPI fell for the second consecutive month to 3.39% in October.

Fed rate hike: Market ended the week decoding Yellen’s statement who said a rate hike in US may ensue ‘relatively soon’. Further, the strong US jobs data released Thursday strengthened the case for raising interest rates.


>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price closed below 200 DMA - almost a 550 points Sell off from 8600 - Now it looks Bear getting a bit tiered as there was a slow in correction. And we have already mentioned the current fall as wave b, in such a case price needs to hold 8000. If breaks below 8000 may negate the count and may possibly test 7800 also.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Lot of alternatives available Post muharat, US Election and Currency Ban Scenario - Apart, Last 3 days price falling and indicators looks positive shows 8000 may hold for a possible bounce. Last 4 Trading Sessions are highly Volatile and Price moves downward with a Positive Divergence on Indicators - Shows a Possible upmove any time.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price below 100DMA and RSI still need to confirm the Bearish Trend. Lot of confusions prevail in Banking Sector - Like Public Funds Flush into Cash Crunched PSU Banks - followed by a Sudden Positive Bias on PUS Stocks - News about Fall in Interest Rate in Coming Days - Struggling NBFC's, Housing Fin Co's, and Micro Fin Co's - its a Bit of confusion in entire Banking Space. But some Light at the end of tunnel for PSU banks shows a possible turn around in medium to long term.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Break Below 18960 again may test 18650. Ball in the Hands of Pvt Banking Space - shows some negative sign on Friday, If starts falling may trigger some sell off.

>>> Maruti - Holding Long <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Long in Maruti.

>>> ApolloTyre - Posted on 15th Nov, 2016 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Posted on 15th Nov,2016 - as a Possible Reversal for the Stock. See what happened.

>>> ApolloTyre - More Rally above 190 & 194 - Hold Your Long <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Long for a Good Rally above 190 & 194.

>>> Performance till 18th Nov, 2016 <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

Above performance is not a Promise or guarantee for the given Profits or Loss.Performance given based on 1 lot at a time and clients Profit differ as per the margin availability and Number of Lots taken by them. We may or may not re-enter the Calls given here hit Stop Loss, as per market movement. The charts given above are just for educational purpose only and we don't recommend any Entry / Buy or Exit / Sell. Reader must taken their own decision or consult their qualified Analyst before making any decision.

For details of our service - email us to niftyforall@yahoo.com or whatsapp @ 9677924975.

Is this an Ending Diagonal ???

Dear All,

Protected against excessive volatility by India’s central bank and backed by one of the world’s fastest growing economies, the rupee could withstand the US dollar’s post-election surge better than many emerging market currencies, economists say. While emerging markets currencies have on average lost 4.6% against the dollar since Trump’s election victory on 8 November, the rupee has lost only 2%. Analysts expect the rupee to continue to fare better than emerging market peers because of the country’s faster economic growth, and near-record foreign exchange reserves of $368 billion, which the Reserve Bank of India’s regularly dips into to smooth out excessive volatility in the currency market.

>>> Nifty 15 Mins Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

If the above chart - for ending diagonal is not wrong - Expect a Pull back above the diagonal - Else price may test 8020.

8093 Test Again Today !!!

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Sell off continues after a gap up opening and price re-tested 8093 as it did yesterday.

>>> Maruti - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above 5020 - Price may bounce for a good rally. Lets See. Cheers!!!

Bulls Must Regain 8130 or Bears Must Break 8003 - Else No Direction

Dear All,

Indian shares slumped on Tuesday amid fears over contraction of growth in the near term post demonetisation while rising US bond yields sparked concerns over foreign capital outflows.

Markets fell sharply, on expectations that there will be an impact on the consumption sector because of the Government’s demonetization drive. Banking stocks did well on expectations of a reduction in cost due to the significant increase in the deposits of the banks. The recent initiatives from the Government will likely provide some headwinds to the economic growth in the short term but will accelerate growth in the long term. The longer term scenario for equity markets has turned bullish and it will likely become one of the better performing asset classes over the medium term.

Foreign institutional investors were sellers in equities worth over Rs 4,000 crore in the past three trading sessions. On Friday, they sold shares worth Rs 1,493 crore, as per provisional stock exchange data. Consumption-led sectors such as fast moving consumer goods and consumer discretionary were the most hit because cash comprises a significant percentage of the transacted value while non-banking finance companies and realty sectors were also among signifcant losers.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

No Respected for Support - Since the Demonetisation Issue Panicking the Entire Stock Market. Almost all the indicators have bottomed out and Price are slowly dipping shows the Strength of Bear.
Above chart - Shows the Importance of 8130 and last Two candles touched 8093 without much strength gives some hope for bulls.

>>> Apollo Tyres - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Looks like Price bottomed @ 182 and we have re-entered long for a good bounce. Cheers!!!

Weekly Review - 15th Nov, 2016

Dear All,

The current scenario on Demonetisation and followed by its impact on every business houses is unknown and it seems index may feel the pressure until the situation stabilizes. Every day news flowing as General Public flushing in Bank and ATM's for Money. There are lot of assurance and steps being taken by govt to stabilize the situation.

Last week counts changed a lot after Price made a New Low on Nifty near 8003 & Bank Nifty Near 18193, though price managed to made a high again same days shows the strength of the bulls. Price need to hold some support to maintain the strength as discussed below.

Altogether - entire market may change as per the news flow and actions taken by govt.

Industrial production data :-

Country’s factory output grew 0.7% in September, recovering only marginally from the previous month’s fall of (-) 0.7%, data released on Friday showed. Experts believe thanks to festive demand, the October output figures, to be released next month, could come out better, but are unlikely to see significant pick up in the coming months hit by an unexpected ban on Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes.

Inflation data :-

Key macro inflation data points - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) are expected to be released on Tuesday. The inflation figures will be closely in focus especially with RBI (Reserve Bank of India) scheduled to announce monetary policy early December. A Citigroup report last week estimated that retail inflation may soften to 4.1% in October and ease further to sub-4% level by November-December, largely helped by favourable base effect.

Fischer comment :-

In his first remarks after Republican Donald Trump won the US presidential election, Stanley Fischer, the second-in-command at Federal Reserve said US economic growth prospects appear strong enough for the Fed to proceed with gradual interest rate rises. The Fed Vice Chair, however, added that the central bank will keep an eye on rising long-term government borrowing costs.

"Of course we will watch events and depending on how the market turns out and how the economy turns out we will adjust our policy if we think that's necessary," Fischer said.

Global data :-

On the global front, the US industrial production data and the US crude stocks will be key data to watch, which will get declared on Wednesday. Investors will also keep a watch on Japanese GDP and euro zone’s industrial production and GDP numbers on Tuesday, data on Chinese housing prices will be released on Friday.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

If the price down on last trading day was wave B, expect wave C on the upper side.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Again on hourly chart also - price shows the importance of 8285 and 8230.

>>> BankNifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Demonetisation may give PSU banks a Big Push. But currency scarcity may be an issue and give a lot of pressure to govt and banks. Any clarity from current confusion may give a clear direction.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price need to hold 19580 and 19500 for a possible upmove.

>>> MCDOWELL-N - Hold Long <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Long and will decide as per market movement.

>>> N4A - Service <<<

Cheers!!!

Key Resistance 8600 & 8620

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price resisted near 8600 and above chart shows the important and need for it to cross above it. 8480 & 8400 must hold for upside. Week end going to be very interesting. Lets See.


>>> N4A <<<

From 8966 to 8003 !!!

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price today fell till 8003 for its last leg to complete its fall. If this analysis is not wrong - we may see a turn around on nifty any time soon.

>>> MCDowell-N - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We have entered Long on this Spirit Stock - Seems like completed its fall for a good bounce back. Holding long for Good Profit. Cheers!!!

>>> N4A - Service <<<

Above 8550 - Next 8620 On Card

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price managed to cross above 8530 and tomorrow if trades above 8550 - will try to fill the gap left till 8620 as shown on above chart.

>>> Bank Nifty - As Posted Yesterday <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

After a Bottoming process - as mentioned on weekly review and followed by a break out yesterday - We have wrote - Price may rally any time. See what happened today.

>>> Bank Nifty - Holding Long for More Rally <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As mentioned yeserday - Price started rallying and tested the first trend line as shown on above chart. We are holding our long from 19250 for more rally.

>>> CEAT - Posted on Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on Weekly Review - about our second entry on Ceat - after hitting a Stop Loss. See what happened today ?

>>> CEAT Ltd - We Booked Rs.56000/- Profit <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We made Rs.56000/- Profit - Booked and Closed.

>>> ApolloTyre - Hourly Chart - Holding Long <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are Holding long from 193 with Rs.12000/- Profit. More Rally expected. Cheers!!!

>>> N4A <<<

Is this a BWW ???

Dear All,

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

If this BWW is not wrong - Expect a Super Bulls Rally - Else if fails - Expect a Heavy Sell Off.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly Chart - Posted on Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on Weekly Review - How important the base line is - See what happened today !!!

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly Chart - Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hence today Price bounce from the base line and looks like a Possible break out. If price continues to hold above the trend line - Expect a Rally. We are Long.

>>> N4A - Services <<<

Weekly Review - 07th Nov, 2016

Dear All,

>>> Trump Vs Clinton <<<

US accounts for 23 per cent of the world’s GDP and 37 per cent of the global financial stocks. Any adverse policy initiative by the new President in the financial powerhouse of the world can be the real big worry for markets across the globe.

US stock markets, too, are trading at their 100-day lows. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth around Rs 5,000 crore in October while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth Rs 8,000 crore

Wall Street's long-running view that Hillary Clinton would easily become the next president has been replaced by a new fear that Donald Trump could win, and it probably won't be a pretty picture for stocks if he does.

The market's nervousness picked up after the FBI last Friday revealed a new investigation into Clinton's email server, this time involving her longtime aide Huma Abedin and her husband Anthony Weiner, who is under federal investigation in a different matter.

Investors are increasing their hedges against Donald Trump pulling off a stunning upset on Nov. 8 and upending assumptions that the US election would result in more of the same, a Democrat in the White House kept in check by Republicans in Congress

The recent moves reflect worries that investors aren’t sure whether to believe reassurances from analysts including Morgan Stanley (Clinton “still favored”) and Citigroup Inc. (toss-up “overstates” Trump’s odds). Over the longer term, both candidates want to increase spending and cut taxes which would be bullish for stocks and bearish for fixed income.

Trump Wins: “Valuations of US equities are quite high, and a Trump victory will trigger a massive selloff,” CMC’s Yang said. Many would consider that a classic “ black swan event,” she added, so the reaction would be “much more severe” than Brexit, which caused the S&P 500 Index to fall 5.3 per cent in two days as benchmarks in Europe and elsewhere lost even more. Investors seeking haven in the yen would be “a negative for Japanese exporters,”

Clinton Wins: “The market has already priced in a Clinton victory,” said Margaret Yang, a CMC Markets analyst in Singapore. “Any upside will be limited if she wins.” Barclays Plc said in a report this week that the S&P 500 Index could gain as much as 3 per cent after a Clinton triumph.

Under Clinton, pharmaceutical and biotech stocks “could be hit by renewed pressure to curb price increases on drugs,” BlackRock Inc. researchers said in a report, noting her complaints about rising costs. Citigroup Inc. cut its rating on the European health-care industry to underweight in September, citing US election risks.

Fox News, in its latest poll yesterday, said that Trump (43 per cent) was trailing behind Clinton (45 per cent) by two percentage points.


>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

IHS - formation on Daily Chart. If Price holds the support as shown on above chart, Expect Super Bulls Rally Soon.

>>> Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price corrected as WXY and may take a support @ 8375 for a reversal rally any time.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Price if holds 100DMA - Expect a bounce, RSI must help the Bulls to add strength.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Base line on above hourly chart looks very important - if breaks then H&S comes into existence which may trigger a heavy sell off. On the Contrary if Price holds the base line - Wave B gets completed and Wave C may start for a good Rally.

>>> CEAT Ltd - Booked Profit Rs.28000/- <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Have Booked Rs.28000/- and closed Ceat Ltd.

>>> CEAT Ltd - Entered on Friday, Hit SL & Re-Entered Again <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Holding Long and if Price moves above the MA's may give a momentum.

>>> Axis Bank - Holding Long <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are Long and Holding for more gain on Axis Bank. Price completed its down move as 1-5 waves and ready for a bounce.

>>> ITC - Posted on 03rd Nov, 2016 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote on 03rd Nov - Price waiting for a Break out Rally. See what happened.

>>> ITC - Booked Rs.43200 Profit <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

As Expected Price made a Gap up & Break out Rally and we Booked our Long with a Excellent Profit.

>>> Performance till 04th Nov, 2016 <<<

>>> Click the image to see on full screen <<<

Above performance is not a Promise or guarantee for the given Profits or Loss.Performance given based on 1 lot at a time and clients Profit differ as per the margin availability and Number of Lots taken by them. We may or may not re-enter the Calls given here hit Stop Loss, as per market movement. The charts given above are just for educational purpose only and we don't recommend any Entry / Buy or Exit / Sell. Reader must taken their own decision or consult their qualified Analyst before making any decision