NiftyforAll: Weekly Review

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Weekly Review - 28.12.2015

Dear All,

The short-term pressures are now shifted to the Budget with the winter session of Parliament ending this week. Meanwhile, markets are likely to remain range-bound with some volatility seen mostly in large-caps ahead of the December F&O expiry.

During the week, the government introduced the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code 2015, or the bankruptcy Bill, in the Lok Sabha on Monday. The Bill has been introduced as a money Bill, which means it will not have to be passed in the Rajya Sabha, where the government has struggled to get legislative work done. Meanwhile, the winter session of Parliament ended on Wednesday.

India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to $8.2 billion (1.6 per cent of gross domestic product) in the September 2015 quarter from $10.9 billion (2.2 per cent of GDP) in the year-ago quarter.

Markets are likely to remain volatile ahead of the expiry of December derivatives contracts, as traders roll-over positions to the January 2016 series. Meanwhile, oil explorers and select metal shares may extend gains tracking global crude and metal prices. Auto shares will be in focus ahead of their December sales figures that would be announced later during the week. On the global front, data on China's manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release on Thursday, December 31.

FIIs have been net buyers for the week for the first time after a lag of many weeks, which is an indication that the rally is likely to sustain and propel the market to new highs on the back of renewed inflow from FPIs. The government has taken proactive steps with regard to the GST by awarding contracts to Infosys to develop a central software platform. It is a loud indication that the policy will be implemented though the timing could be slightly delayed.

The bounce of the previous week testing 7,550 level of Nifty50 has further strengthened the market momentum. Led by short covering and renewed buying by FPIs, the market has firmly found support at these levels.

The market has priced in the negatives and discounted the US Fed increasing interest rates, postponement of the GST and paralysis of the government.

The market is now looking forward for cues to move ahead. However, as the year is heading toward December 31, people are in no mood to commit, and the market is thus expected to remain rangebound for the last week of the calendar.
The Nifty50 ended the week 1.49 per cent higher at 7,861.

>>> Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to view on full screen <<<

RSI on a clear break out, Price closed above 7850 or 38.2% retrace shows a good sign from Bulls. We are holding our long and looking for more rally next week also.

>>> Nifty hourly Chart <<<.

>>> Click the chart to view on full screen <<<

Moving average cross above in favour of bulls and price holding above the channel break out. Hourly chart also on bullish sign.

>>> Bank Nifty Daily Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to view on full screen <<<

Clear break out from the pitchfork channel. RSI should break above the trend line for more healthy rally.

>>> Bank Nifty Hourly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to view on full screen <<<

Moving Average on a positive cross over, Price may try to fill the gap on the upper side above 17030. Possible to test the upper side of the channel also.

>>> BHEL - Hold Long <<<