Weekly Review :- 24.03.2014

Dear All,

Markets are choppy last week and unable to move further. So what else left for next week as its going to be an expiry week also.

Technically RSI in over bot zone may give some correction before next upmove.

What are the other factors to consider for bulls to continue its journey.

1) Fed started talking about rate hike next Year in early Jan may not be a threat for now, though it must be watched cautiously how other countries move to protect their currencies. So expect some hawkish movement in all world currencies soon.

2) RBI still not satisfied with Inflation it seems, may not be interested in a rate cut.

3) Some more bad news coming about PSU banks still not good for Bank Index.

4) Improved economic data across the board is unlikely to prompt RBI to ease rates at its April 1 policy meeting, as core inflation remains sticky and prices could flare due to recent weather disruptions.

So lets see INR Chart also how its going to be move next...

>>> INR/USD Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above is a Weekly Chart of INR/USD - and I feel like 60 is going to be an important support on weekly basis, if unable to break may resume the fall on INR once again, which is definitely going to impact our equity market again.

>>> Nifty - Weekly Chart <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

In our last Weekly Review mentioned on our weekly chart - that a Doji candle visible. This week followed by a red candle below the channel shows some thing bulls are missing to push above the channel line.

Nothing more visible on Daily Chart - So lets pass onto Hourly Chart.

>>> Nifty - Hourly - As updated on Last weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last Week wrote we are long on Nifty.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We booked our long with 140 points. Next week if Price breaks the trend line and able to trade below the supports like 6487 and 6463 then stay cautious with your longs.

>>> Best of Last Week <<<

>>> Voltas <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Crompton Greaves <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Bata India <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Hindustan UniLever <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Worst of the Week <<<

>>> Tata Comm <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Performance <<<

>>>click the image to see on full screen <<<

Directionless - 6163 Support to Decide.

Dear All,

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Choppy move today, unable to move above the minor wedge - seems like a directionless trade today. 6463 looks important as off now. Lets See.

>>> Hindustan Lever - As Updated Yesterday <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hit Target 580 with a Profit of 9000.

Support @ 6463 !!!

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

6463 if not broken then rally may once again resume. Else fall to continue.

>>> Crompton - As Updated on 18th March 2014 <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote about crompton - if breaks the green support line - fall to start.

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes we booked earlier with a profit of 12000 and exited. Since the support line broken, expect more fall.

>>> Bata India <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We had a Part Booking with Rs. 5000. So expect more fall to come.

>>> Tata Comm <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

SL hit @ 288 and exited with a loss of 14000.

>>> Hindustan Unilever <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We are long since 562. If trades above 580 then 600+ soon. Lets See. Cheers!!!

Surprise !!!

Dear All,

The Fed's Open Market Committee concludes its two-day policy meeting Wednesday afternoon. It's Janet Yellen's first meeting in charge of the Fed and investors are looking forward to hearing from her after the meeting. The Fed is widely expected to continue trimming its asset purchase program by another $10 billion, to $55 billion a month. The stimulus program was created to support the U.S. economy and has also been a key driver behind the equity bull market.

Investors and traders will also listen closely for any possible Fed plans to revamp its strategy on interest rate guidance.
The central bank has said it will only raise interest rates once unemployment falls to around 6.5%, or inflation rises as high as 2.5%. It's possible Yellen may abandon these numerical targets to focus on qualitative information instead.

Mean while Global ratings agency Standard & Poor's today said an increasing focus by India Inc on lowering debt is likely to improve their credit profiles.

"More companies are improving their high financial leverage and boosting their credit profiles by adopting measures such as sale of equity and assets or using their free operating cash flows to reduce debt," S&P said in a report.

So Technically Nifty also meant to open doors for many possibilities. Lets See.

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

6500-6510 Support.

Dear All,

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We booked our Longs with 140 Pts Profit. Buy given @ 6430-6440. Now today's fall looks like 5th wave truncation. Need more confirmation to trade below the channel. Lets wait and see.

>>> Voltas - As Udpated last weekly Review <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Happened <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes we advised to hold for 2nd Target 146. Big Profit of 38000 Done.

>>> Crompton Greaves <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes we Hold Short on Crompton. Expecting more fall if breaks the support line. Lets See!!!

Weekly Review :- 17.03.2014

Dear All,

>>> Weekly Chart - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week wrote about the break out on Weekly Chart.

>>> Happened and yet to <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Doji candle on weekly chart. Indecision. So lets see on daily and hourly for clear trend.

>>> Daily Chart - As Updated Last Weekly Review <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week mentioned about IHS break out on daily chart.

>>> Happened and Yet to <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

So the price re-tested the trend line. Hope it will continue to upmove.


>>> Nifty - Hourly Chart <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hourly Chart shows a clearly picture for an uptrend. Last week ended sub wave 4 and started moving up for sw 5.

We covered our earlier shorts with nearly 100 points profit and long since 6430-40. Good upmove should continue if able to cross the channel. Lets see.

>>> Bank Nifty - hourly - As updated Last weekly review <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Last week wrote about Key resistance on Bank Nifty.

>>> Happened and yet to <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

may be the end of sub wave (iv), if so then get ready for new high next week. Else break below the last week low may trigger some more correction.

>>> Flops of Last Week <<<

>>> Tata Steel <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Rcom <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Hit of Last Week <<<

>>> BIOCON <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Asian Paints <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

>>> Voltas <<<

>>> click the chart to see on full screen <<<

6562 Resisted & 6487 Support also Broken.

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

High 6561, resisted near 6562 and support 6487 also broken.

>>> Bank Nifty <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty also resistance. Lets See.

>>> Tata Steel <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hit SL today below 336. Now tomorrow if able to hold above 336, then it may be a double bottom where the stocks may bounce. Else may fall towards next support. Lets See.

>>> Rcom <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Another SL hit today. Earlier counts negated and hence exited with a loss of 6000. Now Lets review the stocks. If 110 gets broken then stock may find support some where near 102 where I feel its a good investment opportunity. Lets See.

Support @ 6487 / Resistance 6546 & 6562

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Above given is a 30 mins.

>>> Asian Paints <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Yes Long since 484. Look for 510 soon. Cheers!!!

Consolidation !!!

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Consolidation On.

>>> Bank Nifty - As Updated on Weekly Review <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Wrote about Resistance Line.

>>> Happened <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Hit the Resistnce line with a Doji. Lets See.

Resistance @ 6560 & 6594

Dear All,

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

May be the end of sub wave iii with a resistance above 6594. Supports also given on chart.

>>> BIOCON <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

We shorted @ 439 and holding still, Part profit advised to book @ 429. Since the channel broken down, may fall more.

Weekly Review :- 10.03.2014

Dear All,

Yes, Last week was Bull's Week. All my Counts and analysis becomes Invalid and Bull took total control.

We hit our Stop Loss on Nifty, Bank Nifty and Some stocks too.

So whats the news and how it happened. Lets see some Bad news followed by some Reversal news last week.

On March 01st had the following news as given below.

April-Jan fiscal deficit at $86 billion, crosses full year target (Please click the link below for details)

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-03-01/news/47799486_1_lakh-crore-fiscal-deficit-full-year-target

On March 05th news on fiscal deficit change the entire scenario as given below.

Q3 Current account deficit drops to 0.9 per cent, stands at lowest in 8 years (Please click the link below for details).

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-03-05/news/47933856_1_gold-imports-nri-deposits-services-imports

So How this happened and what magic happened in just 4-5 days on our economy. May be I'm missing some thing in this context. The readers who knows better on fundamental may drop email to me to niftyforall@yahoo.com if there is any justification in this regard.

One more thing I need clarifications.

On Jan and Feb 2014 RBI governor Raghuram Rajan has said that NPAs must be curbed before the problem becomes alarming.

Public sector banks (PSBs) have registered a massive increase in non-performing assets (NPAs). Gross NPAs of PSBs stood at Rs 112,489 crore in March 2012 rising to Rs 155,890 crore in March 2013 and all- time high of Rs 182,829 crore by June 2013. The Standing Committee on Finance is all set to examine the reasons for high NPAS in PSBs, including bigger banks like State Bank of India (SBI) and Punjab National Bank (PNB).

On Mar 5, 2014 Worried over a further rise in bad loans, especially among large companies, Finance Minister P Chidambaram exhorted PSU banks to effectively deal with non-performing assets (NPAs), their biggest challenge.

He said the efforts have yielded some results as PSU banks recovered Rs 18,933 crore of bad loans during the nine months through December 2013.

Bad loans of PSU banks rose 28.5 per cent to Rs 1.83 lakh crore in March 2013 over the preceding September.

Finally let us see what Analyst (S&P) said on 2014 about Indian Banking Sector.

2014 will remain challenging for Indian banks, say analysts (click the link below)

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-02-10/news/47200712_1_private-sector-banks-psu-banks-indian-banks

In Spite of all these (bad) news, the first upmove started from banking stocks.

So finally lets see what technical Says...

>>> NIFTY - Weekly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

On Weekly Chart shows clear Break Out from the channel !!!.

>>> Nifty Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Earlier On several Weekly review - Have mentioned about the end of Wave B and wrote about the fall of Wave C of 2. Now after breaking 6358 all bear possibilities got truncated and a IHS like pattern also Break Out.

So its time to review the counts on bulls favor. Hence on Nov 03rd 2013 Wave 1 completed @ 6342 and Wave 2 Completed @ 5933 on Feb 04th 2014. Finally Wave 3 on the move. So Last week we saw a Speedy upmove as a result of Wave 3.

Lets See in details how the upmove may continue on Hourly Chart also.

>>> Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Upmoving as Wave 3 with extension waves. Possible Resistance are 6530, 6594 and 6726. I hope this current upmove may last longer till 6726 with some correction and consolidation.

>>> Bank Nifty - Daily <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

Bank Nifty - on Dec 09th 2013 made a high of 12226 was 78.6% retrace of Previous wave and hence referred as Wave B or 2. So thought the fall should be as abc or 1-5. Now if Bank Nifty can take the high of 12226 then the bear count should be invalid. Though I have given the above chart in favor of Bulls.

Possible resistances @ 12340, 12988 and 13814. Since now there are many doubts in this upmove, one should trade cautiously.

Possibilities such as A-B-C-D-E - may touch 13814 if trades above 12226. Lets See.

>>> Bank Nifty - Hourly <<<

>>> Click the chart to see on full screen <<<

11905 Resistance should be taken out for upmove. Above 12226 - overall upmove possible. Lets wait and see.